Red Sox 2023 futures: World Series odds, win total, playoff odds & more

Mass Live

29 March 2023

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The Boston Red Sox get their season underway on Thursday with a three-game set at home to the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.

As you’ll see in the following odds, this season oddsmakers aren’t expecting big things for the Red Sox and a trip to the World Series looks to be quite a longshot. However, the Sox were at least .500 in the preseason going 14-14 in Grapefruit League play.

Will that translate into a good start to the regular season this week and turn any of their futures odds into good bets?

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If you’re bullish on the Sox winning the 2023 World Series, you can get great longshot odds right now of +6000 at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s around mid-pack as 17 teams have shorter odds.

When it comes to winning the American League, Boston are also longshots, ranking 11th in the odds at +2800.

Boston didn’t do a whole lot in the offseason to improve upon last season. They signed only one of their 13 free agents, infielder Yu Chang.

They did sign outfielder Masatake Yoshida from Japan and extended Rafael Devers with a $331 million 13-year contract. Devers was an MVP candidate last season. Devers led the team in home runs (27) and RBIs (88) and extending him is a positive. But letting Xander Bogaerts sign with San Diego is a big loss.

Bogaerts led the team in batting average (.307), hits (171), and was fourth on the team in home runs (15).

Boston also loses outfielder JD Martinez to the Dodgers. Martinez was fourth on the team in hits (146) and tied for third in home runs (16).

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It’s looking like a three-way race for the AL East crown this season between the Yankees, Jays and Rays. All three have odds of +340 or shorter before the Red Sox come in at +1500. The Orioles are the division longshots at +2500.

It was the Yankees and Jays who went nearly down to the wire last season. New York was 99-63, followed by the Jays at 92-70. The Rays were third in the division at 86-76.

Boston last won the AL East in 2018 when they went 108-54.

In a division where the Yankees and Jays look to have solid pitching staffs, Boston is looking to replace 361 innings pitched last season with the departures of Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and Nathan Eovaldi.

The replacements have many question marks. James Paxton has barely played since August 2019 due to injury and Corey Kluber struggled past the All-Star break. Chris Sale is basically a replacement having only pitched 47.4 innings the past two seasons with injuries of his own. He’s expected to be healthy in 2023 but his best days are likely behind him.

Boston was a combined 36-53 in the division last year so they are a ways off from being considered contenders in the AL East.

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The Red Sox’ win total for the 2023 season is currently set at 78.5 at DraftKings. The over is slightly favored at -115 odds, while the under is priced at -105.

That number falls basically right on where they finished last season when they were 78-84. It’s far below their 2021 record of 92-70.

We can’t compare the shortened 2020 season where they only played 60 games and went 24-36.

In the Sox’ previous five seasons to that, they finished with 78 or more wins in each season with 84, 108, 93, 93 and 78.

So the last time they finished under 78 wins (not counting 2020) was in 2014 when they went 71-91.

With new scheduling this season seeing teams playing their division rivals less, this should favor the Red Sox, giving them a chance to go over their win total. Boston was a combined 16-41 against New York, Toronto and Tampa last season. Avoiding those teams more this season can only be a good thing.

But still, they only managed one winning month last year, if you don’t count a 3-2 October.

If you haven’t guessed it already, oddsmakers are also not favoring the Sox to be playing deep into the fall this year. Their odds to make the playoffs are +270. Meanwhile, their odds to miss the playoffs are juiced to -330.

Boston missed the playoffs last season and has also missed in three of the past four seasons. In 2021 they lost 4-2 in the ALCS. The odds may not be great but you’re probably best to bet the ‘no’ or skip this bet.

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