Red Sox vs. Cubs Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Boston Red Sox (48-43) visit the Chicago Cubs (42-47) to open a three-game series at Wrigley Field, with first pitch at 8:05 PM ET on Friday. The Red Sox are coming off a series victory over the Athletics, and the Cubs a series win over the Yankees.

The Cubs are an underdog (+102 moneyline odds to win) when they takes the field at home against the Red Sox (-122). The matchup has an over/under of 9.5 total runs.

The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of July 14, 2023 at 3:23 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Red Sox vs Cubs Betting Lines

Red Sox Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have entered the game as favorites 39 times this season and won 22, or 56.4%, of those games.
• Boston has entered 26 games this season favored by -122 or more and is 16-10 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 55%.
• Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 48 of its 91 games with a total this season.
• The Red Sox are 46-45-0 against the spread this season.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Cubs Betting Insights

• The Cubs have been underdogs in 45 games this season and have come away with the win 17 times (37.8%) in those contests.
• This year, Chicago has won 14 of 34 games when listed as at least +102 or worse on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Cubs have a 49.5% chance of pulling out a win.
• Chicago and its opponents have hit the over in 44 of its 89 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
• In 89 games with a line this season, the Cubs have a mark of 43-46-0 against the spread.

Cubs Last 10 Games Trend

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Brayan Bello

• Bello and his team have a record of 9-5-0 against the spread when he starts.
• The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, July 5, when he gave up two earned runs and allowed eight hits in seven innings against the Texas Rangers.
• Bello has pitched five or more innings in six straight games and will look to extend that streak.
• He has allowed at least one earned run in every appearance this season.
• Bello’s team has been victorious in 57.1% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 4-3.
• Bello’s team is 9-5 when he starts this season.
• Games Bello has started this season hit the over six times in 14 chances.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Cubs Probable Pitcher – Kyle Hendricks

• Hendricks (3-3) takes the mound first for the Cubs in his 10th start of the season. He has a 3.21 ERA in 53 1/3 innings pitched, with 32 strikeouts.
• The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday against the New York Yankees, when he threw 5 2/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up 10 hits.
• Hendricks is aiming for his ninth straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.9 frames per start.
• He has had one appearances this season in which he did not allow an earned run.
• The Cubs have been the moneyline underdog in seven of Hendricks’ starts this season, and they went 4-3 in those matchups.
• Hendricks’ team has won six of his nine starts.
• Hendricks’ starts hit the over on the run total five times in nine games with a set total this season.

Cubs Relief Pitchers

Red Sox Hitting Trends

• The Red Sox have a 20-9 record this season in games when they hit at least two homers.
• Boston has collected at least five extra-base hits in 28 games this season, and has gone 20-8 in those outings.
• The club has notched eight or more hits in 66 games this season, and is 39-27 in those contests.
• Boston has a 39-9 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
• The Red Sox are 12-10 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Cubs Hitting Trends

• They have won 18 of the 32 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
• Chicago has won 14 of its 16 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
• They have won 40 of the 58 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
• Chicago has won 32 of its 43 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
• They have a 17-14 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Red Sox vs. Cubs Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (+102)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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