Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Boston Red Sox (57-54) host the Kansas City Royals (36-77) at 7:10 PM ET on Monday, in a matchup between two teams on losing streaks. The Red Sox have dropped five games in a row, and the Royals two straight.

The Red Sox are favored at home (-200) against the Royals (+167). The contest has a set total of 9.5.

The betting facts in the article below are based off odds valid as of August 7, 2023 at 7:12 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Red Sox vs Royals Betting Lines

Red Sox Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have won 27, or 52.9%, of the 51 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• Boston has a record of 3-3 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -200 on the moneyline.
• The Red Sox have a 66.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 57 of its 111 games with a total this season.
• The Red Sox are 57-54-0 against the spread this season.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Royals Betting Insights

• The Royals have come away with 32 wins in the 99 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This season, Kansas City has come away with a win 11 times in 35 chances when named as an underdog of at least +167 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Royals have an implied victory probability of 37.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Kansas City and its opponents have gone over in 54 of its 113 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• In 113 games with a line this season, the Royals have a mark of 48-65-0 against the spread.

Royals Last 10 Games Trend

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Brayan Bello

• Bello and his team have a record of 12-6-0 against the spread when he starts.
• The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he gave up four earned runs and allowed eight hits in six innings against the Seattle Mariners.
• Bello has pitched five or more innings in two straight games and will look to extend that streak.
• He has not pitched this season without allowing at least one earned run.
• Bello’s team has a record of 6-4 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
• Bello’s team has won 12 of his 18 starts.
• Games started by Bello have a 9-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Royals Probable Pitcher – Cole Ragans

• Ragans (3-3 with a 4.33 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Royals, his fourth of the season.
• The lefty last pitched on Thursday against the New York Mets, when he threw six scoreless innings while giving up seven hits.
• Ragans will try to go five or more innings for his third straight start. He’s averaging 1.8 frames per outing.
• He has made 12 appearances this season in which he did not allow an earned run.
• The Royals were the moneyline underdog for two Ragans starts this season — they split the games.
• Over Ragans’ three starts, his team is 1-2.
• Ragans’ starts hit the over on the run total one time in three games with a set total this season.

Royals Relief Pitchers

Red Sox Hitting Trends

• The Red Sox have a 25-11 record in games this season when they belt two or more homers.
• Boston has collected at least five extra-base hits in 34 games this season, and has gone 25-9 in those outings.
• The team is 48-32 in the games this season it has put up eight or more hits.
• Boston is 47-10 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
• The Red Sox are 13-10 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Royals Hitting Trends

• They are 12-16 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
• Kansas City has won 12 of its 27 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
• They have won 27 of the 63 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
• Kansas City has won 24 of its 37 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
• They have won four of their 15 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-200)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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