Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction, odds: We’re targeting a 1st-5 play in this interleague matchup

We have a Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction, as the teams are streaking in opposite directions heading into this series. Boston is riding high with six consecutive wins, including an impressive four-game sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays.

As for Philadelphia, it’s lost four straight games and was outscored 36-11 in a three-game sweep on the road against the Dodgers.

The good news for the Phillies is they got a day off to clear their heads after returning to Philadelphia for a five-game home stand. It also doesn’t hurt that they’ll have their ace on the mound, Zack Wheeler, while Boston will counter with Chris Sale.

In this preview, I’ll share why Wheeler is the right guy on the mound as the Phillies try to halt this losing streak.

Red Sox vs. Phillies odds

Moneyline: BOS (+125) vs. PHI (-155)

Spread: BOS +1.5 (-165) vs. PHI -1.5 (+135)

Total: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Red Sox vs. Phillies pick

Phillies F5 ML (-155)

Probable pitchers and analysis

Red Sox — Chris Sale (2-2, 6.75 ERA) vs. Phillies — Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.86 ERA)

After making only two starts in 2022 due to a series of freak injuries, Sale is still trying to build up his workload. Thus, after Sale’s quality start against the Guardians his last time out, this feels like a good spot to fade the left-hander.

Sale now has two quality starts on the year. However, after his previous quality start, he allowed five runs in five innings in his next outing.

According to FanGraphs, keeping the ball down has undoubtedly been a problem for Sale, given that he has a 1.53 HR/9 ratio. Even more interesting is that 19.2% of his batted fly balls leave the ballpark as souvenirs.

That could be problematic, considering Citizens Bank Park boosts home runs by an additional 5% per EV Analytics.

If we turn to Wheeler, he’s been a magician at keeping the ball inside the park. Since signing as a free agent with Philadelphia, he’s yet to post an HR/9 ratio above 0.76. This season, that number is down 0.28, with only 3.2% of his fly balls resulting in home runs.

Even with a decent 3-1 mark and 3.86 ERA, the advanced numbers suggest there’s still more upside for Wheeler, given his 3.21 xERA and a more impressive 2.54 FIP.

And when you look at the head-to-head numbers, Boston’s current roster has an average launch angle of 12.2 degrees against Wheeler. In comparison, Philadelphia’s roster has an average launch angle of 23.7 degrees against Sale.

While there’s no question that the Red Sox are on a hot streak, my focus is to try to isolate Sale by targeting him on the first five moneyline.

According to our Action Labs database, Wheeler is a perfect 3-0 in this spot as a favorite when his team is on a four-game losing streak. Moreover, one of those wins came against the Red Sox in 2021.

Lastly, Wheeler is on a 5-0 run on the first five moneyline this season.

My model makes the Phillies closer to a -170 favorite in this spot, giving me a slight edge at the current price.

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