Phillies vs. Braves prediction: Pick, odds for Game 1 of NLDS in 2023 MLB playoffs

The rematch we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. The Philadelphia Phillies made quick work of the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card round this week, setting up a titanic NLDS clash with the MLB-best Atlanta Braves in the NLDS. First pitch of Game 1 from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 6:07 p.m. ET. Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA) will get the start for Philly, while the Braves send ace Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86) to the mound looking to erase the memory of last season’s disastrous NLDS outing against the Phils.

The Braves enter as -205 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Philly at +170. The run total is set at 7.5.

Phillies vs. Braves NLDS Game 1 picks: Saturday, October 7

Injury report

Phillies

Out: 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee)

Braves

Out: SP Charlie Morton (finger), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Ranger Suarez vs. Spencer Strider

Even with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola going in the Wild Card round, Rob Thomson had several options to choose from for Game 1. He wound up going with Suarez, and it’s not hard to see why: The lefty was solid this season — meaningless final start against the Pirates notwithstanding — and he was brilliant in his one start against the Braves, allowing just one run on four hits and two walks with seven Ks over six innings of work. He also boasts a healthy 80th-percentile ground ball rate, which will be helpful for keeping this Atlanta lineup in the ballpark. Suarez can be pretty streaky: When he’s locked in, he’s incrdible — 1.08 ERA in May, 2.45 in July — but his feel can come and go.

It feels like Strider’s whole season has been building to this start. MLB’s strikeout king — he led the league with a whopping 281 Ks, 44 more than second-place Kevin Gausman — was largely brilliant this year, establishing himself as the best young pitcher in the game. He was also brilliant against the Phillies this season, with a 2.42 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 26 innings across four starts. The last time he was on the mound in the postseason, though, he was getting shelled by this same Philly team, who tagged him for five runs on three hits and two walks (and one bat spike) in just 2.1 innings of work while taking the loss in Game 3 of last year’s NLDS. For as good as Strider’s been this year, his inflated 3.86 ERA is a testament to his penchant for giving up the long ball. Will he take a step forward on Saturday, or will his old demons rear their heads again?

Over/Under pick

It’s very hard not to have faith in Strider, despite how poorly his one prior October start went and despite his occasional hiccups this season. He enters this game fully rested (and fully motivated), and I expect him to pitch well. That will put a lot of pressure on the Braves’ lineup to hit this total, and for as incredible as Atlanta has been at the plate this year, I’m still backing the under. Philly’s bullpen is as deep as anyone left in the field, and they’ll be all hands on deck with Wheeler waiting in the wings for Game 2 on Monday.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

This is more about the odds than anything else. With so little juice on Atlanta, I certainly don’t think they’re enough of a slam dunk in this spot to make it worth your while. Philly, meanwhile, has played the Braves tough for the past couple of years, has a starter on the mound with success against Atlanta and boasts arguably the best bullpen left in the postseason. At +170, this one is much closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest.