Reds-Diamondbacks prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, August 24

The Cincinnati Reds (67-61) and Arizona Diamondbacks (66-61) will begin an important four-game weekend series tonight as both teams are separated by just a half game in the NL Wild Card race. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix. Lefty Brandon Williamson (4-3, 4.47 ERA) will step on the hill for the Redlegs and will go up against righty Merrill Kelly (10-5, 3.13 ERA) for the D-Backs.

Cincinnati is cruising into the second leg of its 10-game West Coast road trip after sweeping the Angels in a three-game set earlier this week. The Reds were able to consistently get runners on base and capitalized big in L.A., producing 28 hits and drawing 13 walks in the series. They would claim the last NL Wild Card spot if the season ended today, but also sit just 3.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Arizona’s slow start at the beginning of the month is a distant memory as it has won nine of its last 11 and is riding a four-game winning streak heading into this series. The D-Backs swept both games of its quick series against the Rangers earlier in the week, walking it off in extras on Monday before holding the hot Texas bats at bay on Tuesday. As alluded to earlier, Arizona sits just a half-game behind Cincinnati in the NL Wild Card race, so this will be a pivotal series for both clubs’ playoff aspirations.

The Diamondbacks enter the game as -170 favorites on the moneyline over at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Reds are a +142 underdog. The run total is set at 9.

Reds-Diamondbacks picks: Thursday, August 24th

Injury report

Reds

Out: 2B Jonathan India (foot), OF Jake Fraley (toe), SP Nick Lodolo (tibia), RP Tejay Antone, OF Stuart Fairchild (concussion), SS Kevin Newman (oblique), SP Ben Lively (pectoral), SP Vladimir Gutierrez (elbow), SP Justin Dunn (shoulder), C Curt Casali (foot)

Diamondbacks

Out: SP Zack Davies (back), SP Tommy Henry (elbow), RP Mark Melancon (shoulder), RP Austin Adams (ankle), RP Drey Jameson (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Brandon Williamson vs. Merrill Kelly

The Reds have fallen in Williamson’s previous two starts and he didn’t have his best stuff in last Saturday’s outing against the Blue Jays. He gave up all four earned runs in the team’s 4-3 loss, yielding nine hits and a walk through 5.2 innings of work. No. 2 hitters are batting .310 against him this season, so watch for when he faces Ketel Marte this evening.

Kelly was finally able to pick up his first win since June 19 last Saturday, helping the Diamondbacks down the Padres 6-4. He yielded three earned runs in 5.1 innings of action, but had enough backup on offense to carry him to his 10th victory of the season. He’s held opponents to just a .200 batting average at home this season, so we’ll see if he can hold the line against a Reds offense coming off a productive series in L.A. tonight.

Over/Under pick

Despite their success over the past few days, both offenses have been middling in both the batting average and OPS departments for the past week and will face a challenge when facing two capable starters tonight. This could end up being a tight contest, so I’d take the under here.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

It’s difficult to make heads or tails of who wins this series opener with both clubs playing extremely well this week. Cincinnati is 30-25 on the moneyline as road underdogs this season and I think some of the momentum from the Angels series will carry over into tonight’s series opener. Take the Reds.