Saints Patriots preview, prediction: NFL picks, odds

The New Orleans Saints are 2-2 entering today’s road contest against the New England Patriots, who are also looking to get back in the win column after a 1-3 start.

Both the Saints and Patriots have faced similar problems to start 2023, as they’ve both played well on defense but have struggled mightily to score points ranking among the bottom 10 teams in the NFL.

The oddsmakers see this being a tight contest, as the latest betting line at Caesars Sportsbook has the spread as a pick ‘em to where both the Saints and Patriots are even money to win.

This matchup is interesting despite both teams’ struggles on offense, so we’re going to break down each team and come up with a final score pick and a best bet.

Reasons to like the Saints

The Saints are coming off an ugly loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which their offense hit rock bottom, but they’ve got an opportunity to respond this week considering the Patriots are dealing with injuries on defense. Patriots top pass rusher Matthew Judon and top cornerback Christian Gonzalez suffered major injuries last week and will be out to where Derek Carr and the Saints passing game should be able to get going assuming Carr is healthier than last week. The Saints defense is also in position for success considering that the Patriots offense has struggled with Mac Jones at quarterback.

Reasons to like the Patriots

Even though the Patriots dynasty is no more, Bill Belichick is still one of the toughest coaches to face in the NFL, as he thrives at taking away what opposing teams do well as Thomas Casale pointed out on Thursday’s ‘Bayou Bets’ show. While the Patriots are dealing with some key injuries, their defense is among the stingiest in the NFL and should be sharper after struggling last week against the Cowboys considering that the Saints offense isn’t nearly as explosive. The Patriots offense has moved the ball well at times, and the Saints defense should some chinks in its armor last week.

The bottom line

This is a tough game to predict, as the oddsmakers don’t even know who should be favored as evidenced by the even money point spread, but there will be a winner regardless of if it’s ugly. The under is my best bet since neither offense is in position to thrive considering the defenses are the strengths of both teams. I see the Saints being out front for most of the way, but their lack of execution in the red zone sets up for a Patriots comeback victory. 

The pick: Patriots 17, Saints 16

Betting line: Saints (+-0, -110) at Saints (-110), 39.5 O/U

Best bet: Under 39.5 (-110)

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com