- Saratoga Race Course: Rains have forced several races off turf and onto main track

Through the first four weeks, the Saratoga weather has driven more than its share of races off the turf.

Of the scheduled 97 turf races to date, 25 have been washed off the turf and onto the main track.

Week Four contributed to that total with seven off-the-turf races, with more rain expected this week. Add to that NYRA officials will likely be additionally cautious with decisions regarding the turf courses based on the events that transpired over the weekend.

That means it is time to sharpen those off-track handicapping skills.

Looking at the 19 races with muddy/sloppy tracks to date, it has paid off being close to or on the lead. Speed has been a big factor with seven going gate-to-wire and nine being within two lengths of the lead at second call.

Checking the past performances for horses that have early speed and stay close to the lead throughout should be the horses you are putting stock in.

A key handicapping tool for off tracks is the Tomlinson figure within the Daily Racing Form. The 19 winners on off tracks during the first four weeks have averaged a Tomlinson rating of 375. There have been five off-track winners with Tomlinson ratings over 400.

Seize the Grey, a longshot play of the day on Jim Dandy day, had a 423 Tomlinson rating and went off at 16-1, paying $34.80 for the win over the sloppy surface.

If you’re a BRIS user, one tool that can be utilized is looking at the horse’s dam and sire stats for progeny on off-tracks. The Mud percentage can be found within the PP’s, and I tend to look at horses with numbers north of 17%-20% as progeny that should handle the off going.

Finally, the past performances of the horses on off tracks should be considered when handicapping for the off track, those who have handled it well in the past typically repeat those efforts. Make sure you pay attention to the MTO (Main Track Only) entries in the program, horses that will only run if the race goes off the turf.

Keep in mind that the off-track statistics are just for tracks posted as good, muddy or sloppy.  Of the 25 races that have been pushed off the turf, 16 have been run on a fast track as it dried up in time, so make sure the MTO’s are decent on fast tracks before betting on them.

Chalk slowed down for the second consecutive week as favorites won at a 32.7% clip (36.6% for the meet to date). Ironically, the exotic payoffs, especially $0.50 trifectas, decreased as the favorites, while not winning, were still hitting the board, creating the weaker payoffs.

Speed continues to be key on the main track, even though there were only eight gate-to-wire winners in week four in the 30 dirt races. Only four of those 30 had a horse coming significantly from behind to win the race. If you’re not in the top three at the top of the stretch on the dirt, you’re likely not going to be cashing.

Yours truly started the week off with a bang with a six-win Wednesday followed later on the weekend with a five-win Saturday, but the other three days we took it squarely on the chin. Currently sitting second by one behind Matt Donato of the four Gazette handicappers with 57 winners in 192 races (29.7% win percentage) with a $2.01 ROI. My top pick has been in-the-money 69.8% of the time.