Saratoga: Will In Italian find an easy time in Diana Stakes?

Once more, In Italian finds herself facing an advantageous pace situation in the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana at Saratoga on Saturday. The pacesetting turf star faces only a few odd scenarios in which she could endure any heat up front. Otherwise, she will loaf along on the lead uncontested again.  

Because it benefits handicappers to know every pace scenario that might happen, it will help to discuss them even if they are not likely. But first, here is a recap of In Italian's two easy wins to start the year.

In April, In Italian took the lead in the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. She always held at least a one-length advantage throughout the race before opening up to win by three lengths over the familiar European runner With the Moonlight in second.

Two months later, In Italian secured the lead in the Just a Game Stakes (G1) at Belmont and held a two-length advantage in the opening quarter despite running it in a sluggish 24.27. At that point, the outcome was inevitable.

In Italian would go on the maintain the lead through a 47.95-second half and 1:11.12 for six furlongs. She finished the race 3 3/4 lengths ahead of the runner-up Spendarella, who chased In Italian in second all the way around.

In Italian's stablemate Marketsegmentation owns enough speed to at least make In Italian work in the early stages of this race. In her most recent start, Marketsegmentation set the pace while uncontested in the 10-furlong New York Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. She held on late against the stalking Didia to win by 3/4 of a length. Also note the heavy favorite War Like Goddess ran an odd sixth in that race.

Even if Marketsegmentation owns the speed to press In Italian, the situation is not straightforward because trainer Chad Brown trains both In Italian and Marketsegmentation. When trainers run more than one horse in a race, they usually come up with a solid game plan that avoids confrontation.  

Marketsegmentation can make In Italian work harder, but why would Brown want that? Besides, In Italian would tire out Marketsegmentation. 

Fev Rover, who runs for the Mark Casse barn, also brings possible speed to the table. She is the only entrant not trained by Brown. Last summer, Fev Rover contested the pace in both the Dance Smartly Stakes (G2) and Canadian Stakes (G2) at Woodbine and finished second and first in those races.

In the latter race, she ended up switching outside of her pace opponent Angelou before taking control of the lead and holding off Crystal Cliffs.  

When Fev Rover made her return this month in the recent Nassau Stakes (G2) at Woodbine, jockey Patrick Husbands stood up at the break and let Fev Rover fall back toward the rear of the field even though she broke well. The conservative tactics paid off as Fev Rover made a nice closing move and won the race by 4 1/4 lengths.

Fev Rover’s new jockey Javier Castellano can try to send his mare from the rail, but why burn Fev Rover out knowing In Italian also will go to the front? If Fev Rover tries aggressive tactics, In Italian still will outfoot her to the lead and Fev Rover will become tired early and fade from contention.

From the outside, In Italian's other stablemate Whitebeam brings minor tactical speed. In her two races in this country, she ran as a stalking type in the Plenty of Grace Stakes at Aqueduct and Gallorette Stakes (G3) at Pimlico, and she won the latter race by over two lengths.

For the first time, Whitebeam also receives the services of Flavien Prat, who knows how to read a turf pace scenario as well as any top jockey.

Prat could try to ask Whitebeam for more early. But again, Whitebeam runs for Brown, and he probably does not want to use another entrant to pressure In Italian, especially since he knows In Italian can burn anyone who tries.

In Italian probably will win this race at very low odds. Plenty of favorites start at low odds without deserving them. But in this case, In Italian deserves all the attention given her strong record.

The only way to play this race is to single In Italian in multi-race wagers and move on, or skip the race altogether and wait for the later races on the card.