Saturday plays: Choosing right Baffert filly in Starlet Stakes

Even though both of trainer Bob Baffert’s two entries can win the Grade 2, $200,000 Starlet Stakes, a Kentucky Oaks (G1) points prep Saturday at Los Alamitos, one makes more sense from a betting standpoint given her proven experience as a past stakes winner and two-turn route victor as well.

Before revealing the more reliable Baffert filly to choose in the Starlet though, here is a selection for one of the undercard races.

Race 2: Maiden special weight, 3 and up, 3:58 p.m. EST

Hey Brother gave a mild effort in his career debut at Del Mar on Nov. 19 to finish fourth. But in fairness he had no pace to work with since the Tim Yakteen-trained pacesetter Matanzas Creek led the field uncontested through 22.70- and 45.69-second fractions for the six-furlong race. 

Matanzas Creek went on to finish strongly and win by 2 1/4 lengths over a closing Judge Miller in second. Hey Brother kept pace in the stretch and lost by 5 1/4 lengths, earning a respectable 105 on TimeformUS.

In this spot Hey Brother might receive the right pace setup with the favorite Elwood Blues, Don Corleone and Devilish Desire all owning early speed. In addition, Hey Brother wears blinkers this time around, which means he should sit closer to the leaders since that promotes speed.

Hey Brother is the choice at a price.

Win-place: 6 at 4-1 or longer.

Race 9: Starlet Stakes (G2), 7:28 p.m. EST

Given Nothing Like You owns a win in a two-turn route and also shows a stakes win, she is the right Baffert entry to play in this Grade 2 route.

Two months ago Nothing Like You set the pace in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park and went on to finish strong with a 6 1/2-length win over Great Forty Eight, who broke her maiden a month later at Del Mar. Great Forty Eight also will compete in the Starlet too. 

After the impressive maiden win, Nothing Like You cut back to seven furlongs in the Desi Arnaz Stakes at Del Mar. This time around, she took up a mid-pack position in the five-horse field as the run-off pacesetter Royal Slipper led by three lengths through an opening quarter in 22.03 seconds.

Royal Slipper also led through the half-mile in 45.55 seconds, but Tambo, Don’t Bring Crazy and Nothing Like You all caught up with the leader on the turn. Tambo went to attack Royal Slipper’s lead first. Nothing Like You needed to wait on the inside with no room to move around for the moment.

Nothing Like You ended up tipping outside of Tambo and Royal Slipper at the top of the stretch. Before Tambo could open up and finish off the race, Nothing Like You began to close the gap quickly, and she prevailed.

From a visual standpoint, Nothing Like You was impressive in both races. In the Desi Arnaz she did not win by a big margin. However, the latter effort proves this Baffert-trained runner does not need to lead.

Nothing Like You’s stablemate and main opponent Grazia owns only a win in a six-furlong, maiden special weight at Del Mar. Grazia won the race easily enough and might handle the 1 1/16-mile distance as a daughter of Uncle Mo out of a Malibu Moon mare, but Grazia still needs to prove it. Her dam Tonasah was a sprinter. 

Chatalas, the morning-line second choice at 2-1, exits a ninth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies after winning the Chandelier Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. Even though she won a Grade 2, maybe she did not beat a great field in the Chandelier, and the Juvenile Fillies exposed her.

Nothing Like You hits the right check marks and may offer a fair deal with Grazia and Chatalas both likely to attract a good part of the wagering dollars. Assuming the public does not go crazy on Nothing Like You, she is the top choice.

For second, Great Forty Eight is an interesting option after the maiden win at Del Mar last time. Note the 11 3/4-length gap between the third-place Flynn’s Chance and Pacific Rose in fourth. One start before that race, Pacific Rose ran fourth in the Chandelier and 2 1/2 lengths behind the winning Chatalas. Yet she lost by double-digit lengths to Great Forty Eight. 

Flynn’s Chance deserves a chance, too. Considering trainer Richard Mandella wants to start this 0-for-2 maiden in a Grade 2, he must think Flynn’s Chance has talent. She might move forward in her third start.

Nothing Like You is the key on top.