Silly Season: Verstappen to Mercedes odds? And other silliness
What chance Red Bull’s triple Formula 1 World Champion Max Verstappen ditches his dominant and winning team? Higher than you might think according to odds being offered by bookmakers.
On 1 February 2024, Formula 1’s most incredible Silly Season was startled to life when Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari all but broke the internet and interest has not subsided from all fronts, now with betting companies offering odds for who goes where in 2025.
Hamilton joins Charles Leclerc after Ferrari orchestrated the F1 coup of the century, prising the seven-time F1 World Champion away from his Mercedes roots, for a career swansong in the top flight with the sport’s most famous team. Two giant brands of racing unite next year.
This leaves Hamilton’s much-coveted seat at Mercedes up for grabs, with common sense suggesting George Russell will be promoted to team leader, with maybe Carlos Sainz swapping over or even Kimi Antonelli getting the nod from Toto team boss Wolff.
But the whole Silly Season is buzzing again as talk of Verstappen ditching Red Bull amid the Christian Horner “sex texts” saga that has engulfed the team since the mighty Red Bull RB20 was unleashed. The car is so dominant you might as well hand the 2024 F1 Champion’s trophy to Max and the Constructors’ title to his team, and we’re only two races into the season.
Despite full marks for the start of the season, two out of two in dominant style, talk is Verstappen could ditch Red Bull and move to Mercedes as early as 2025 despite having a contract until 2028 with Horner’s team.
This appears to be the problem, as more than one wants the current RBR team principal out, maybe even le Jos Verstappen who is in Record Horner is not good for his son’s team and future. And let himself be seen in earnest chatter with Wolff inside the Mercedes enclave in Jeddah when the matter exploded.
Nevertheless, with the F1 season done and dusted from a betting point of view. Who is going to bet on a sport in which a contestant wins every race, where putting money on him is futile? How about the odds that the driver in question, Verstappen will move to Mercedes in 2025?
Contracts mean nothing in F1 where money talks and escape clauses abound
Before Wolff made the remark that “any team would do handstands to have Max in the team,” BonusCodeBets odds the Dutch ace would move to Mercedes, in 2025, were at 16/1 but in recent weeks has shot up to 6/1 chance that Verstappen will depart indeed Red Bull to join their German rivals.
Bookies have gone as far as offering odds of 40/1 that Verstappen will be the 2025 F1 World Champion with Mercedes! They also have on offer the Silver Arrows to win a F1 Constructors Championship in the next three years at an apparently optimistic 9/4.
A BonusCodeBets spokesperson explained: “With Lewis Hamilton’s vacant Mercedes seat in 2025, the eight-time constructors’ champions will look for a like-for-like replacement, possibly Max Verstappen, who has been backed into 6/1 from 16/1 to replace the Brit.
“The Dutchman may want a new challenge, but it will be interesting to see if the previously frosty partnership between him and George Russell can thaw, given their previous quarrels.
“That switch would leave the door open for a new number one driver to lead the Red Bull team, and Carlos Sainz, who leaves Ferrari next season, has odds of 3/1 to continue a dominant streak for the Austrian team.”
Who will drive for Mercedes in 2025?
- Andrea Kimi Antontelli – 5/4
- Fernando Alonso – 6/4
- Max Verstappen – 6/1
- Carlos Sainz – 12/1
- Esteban Ocon – 14/1
- Valtteri Bottas – 25/1
- Sergio Perez – 40/1
- Oscar Piastri – 50/1
- Daniel Ricciardo – 50/1
- Lando Norris – 80/1
- Charles Leclerc – 100/1
- Mick Schumacher – 150/1
Who will get the Red Bull drive if Verstappen departs to Mercedes?
- Carlos Sainz to Red Bull in 2025 – 3/1
- Daniel Ricciardo to race for Red Bull in 2025 – 10/1
A parting from shot for the engineers and Tifosi among our readers, arguably the real guy every team should be doing “double-handstands” to sign at all costs aka Adrian Newey. A bet on the F1 design guru departing Red Bull for a move to Ferrari, as early as 2025, can be had at 12/1.
Watch this space!
