Aces vs Sky Predictions, Picks, and Odds

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26 July 2023

Aces vs Sky Predictions, Picks, and Odds

The Aces are facing another huge spread against the Sky, and while our WNBA picks certainly have faith in the champs, we've found a derivative that gives even better value than the spread.

The Las Vegas Aces close out a three-game road trip in the Windy City when the reigning WNBA champs visit the Chicago Sky on Tuesday.

Las Vegas is actually playing in its fourth straight away game, stretching back before the All-Star break, and is once again facing a massive point spread.

The Aces’ championship pace has bookies piling on the points and the betting markets running up those numbers before tipoff. However, all that chalk hasn’t impacted their profits, as Vegas has covered the WNBA odds in four of the last five games against spreads ranging from -11.5 to as high as -17.

I break down this non-conference clash and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Sky on July 25.

Aces vs Sky best odds

Aces vs Sky picks and predictions

My WNBA power ratings spit out a spread very similar to what the market is dealing on Tuesday morning, with my number at Las Vegas -13.5 and the actual line opening as low as -13 and creeping up to -14.5 with action on the Aces.

I don’t want to doubt the most powerful team in WNBA history, but I'm hesitant to go beyond my rating in what should be a blowout game in the final stop on an extended four-game road stretch that started before the All-Star break.

Rather than lay the lumber with Las Vegas for the full game, I’m going to focus on the first 20 minutes. The Aces have wasted little time putting opponents on their heels, especially during this recent road run. They’ve outscored foes by an average of more than 17 points in those opening two frames, including blasting Minnesota by 18 points at the break on Saturday.

Overall, the Aces have a net rating of +19.5 in the first half of road games (compared to just +9.0 in the second half of those contests), averaging 44.2 points in the first 20 minutes of those away outings. That mark shouldn’t be too hard to top considering the matchup with the stumbling Sky tonight.

Chicago enters this game as the worst defense when it comes to defending the paint, giving up almost 41 points inside the key per contest in 2023. As it would happen, the Aces are the most dominant attack around the rim, scoring a WNBA-high 40.7 average points in the paint.

Vegas goes after opponents inside right from the opening tip, topping the league with almost 11 field goal attempts inside in the first half and knocking down 54.6% of those interior looks. That was the game plan the last time these teams clashed, with the Aces scoring 50 total points in the paint and building a 17-point lead at the halftime whistle.

The derivative markets have Las Vegas as an 8.5-point first-half favorite in Chicago — a mark they’ve eclipsed easily in recent showings. I’m going to bank on another strong start from Becky Hammon’s crew before the possibility of cruising in the second half.

My best bet: Aces first half -8.5 (-110 at bet365)

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Aces vs Sky spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Tuesday’s game hit the board as low as Las Vegas -13 and quickly jumped as high as -14.5.

My WNBA power ratings produced a spread of Las Vegas -13.5, but I will say that measuring the might of the Aces has been one of the more difficult tasks when projecting point spreads this season. Las Vegas sits head and shoulders above the rest of the league, with a net rating far greater than the second tier of teams.

Vegas hasn’t been as dominant on the road, with a net rating of 14.2 as a visitor (but still pretty damn good). The Aces are 6-6 ATS in enemy territory and while Chicago isn’t the toughest test, WNBA teams can have a rough go at the tail end of a road trip due to the condensed schedule and travel woes. However, Vegas’ current journey has been spaced out and it last played July 22, giving the team ample downtime.

The Sky snapped a four-game skid with a win over hapless Seattle last time out yet only has four wins in their last 14 games going back to June 9, boasting a 5-8-1 ATS count in that span. Adding to those woes was the departure of head coach and GM James Wade, who left the team to take an NBA job in Toronto at the start of July.

Chicago’s offense has sputtered during the summer, lugging the second-worst offensive rating in the land during this 14-game stumble. Home court has done little to help either, with the Sky averaging less than 80 points in front of the Windy City faithful.

That doesn’t bode well against the most powerful offense in the WNBA. The Aces have multiple threats, and even with former Chicago star and starting center Candace Parker sidelined, this potent scoring attack hasn’t skipped a beat.

These non-conference foes clashed in Sin City on June 11 and Las Vegas rolled to a 93-80 victory as a 13.5-point home favorite. The Aces shot 58% from the field and had all five starters score in double figures. That final score also easily topped the closing total of 168 points.

Today’s Over/Under opened at 170.5 points and has been bet down to 168.5 with early play on the Under. While the Aces play at one of the quicker tempos in the league (third in pace rating at 98.53), the Sky rank among the more methodical offenses and sit 10th in pace (95.59).

Chicago had played to four straight Unders before topping the total against the Storm last time out. It holds a 9-13 O/U record on the season. Vegas, on the other hand, is 14-9 O/U heading into Tuesday night.