Sleeper Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship
17D AGO
For three consecutive events, Rob identifies golfers needing a good performance to advance in the FedExCup Playoffs. In this second edition, all five below enter the FedEx St. Jude Championship outside the top 50 in points. Scenarios for all golfers to advance can be reviewed here. Recommended bets are independent of targets to advance.
Alex Smalley (-175 = Top 40) … With a field of only 70 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and no cut, odds will be flat for fringe finishes, so the focus just to advance is a stronger headline. At 51st in FedExCup points, he’s first on the outside looking in. When considering the three occurrences in which points were quadrupled in the Playoffs for a field of the same size, eight golfers climb from outside to inside the top 50. It happened twice in 2019 and three times each in 2021 and 2022. (This is using the results of the BMW Championship in each edition. Although it was a second leg of the Playoffs, it hosted 70 golfers.) Of that sample size, the lowest seed to advance was 67th-ranked Taylor Pendrith with a T8 in 2022. He climbed 21 spots to 46th. On the other side of the spectrum, Si Woo Kim’s T28 in 2019 was the worst result that still achieved the objective. He gained seven spots to 46th. Smalley is one of the best ball-strikers in the field, so to have the promise of 72 holes to sneak into the top 50 on a test that rewards his skill set is an easy call. He also hung up three top 25s in his most recent six starts.
Thomas Detry (-250 = Top 40) … The 30-year-old rookie from Belgium essentially coasted to this opening position with a well-balanced debut campaign that was eased by a phenomenal fall. He’s the 52-seed, so one more top 25 should pay forward into a tee time at the BMW Championship. He has 10 of those this season, including his last two starts. His game improves nearer to the hole, so he’d be advised to sharpen the irons to give his strength the opportunity to shine at TPC Southwind.
Hideki Matsuyama (+115 = Top 20) … This presents as one of the more stressful tests for the eight-time PGA TOUR winner from Japan. He’s 9-for-9 in advancing to the TOUR Championship, but at 57th in points, he’ll need to fulfill this prop to continue to have a chance to remain perfect for the purpose. So, let’s ride along with him. He’s sprinkled enough of those across 2023 and TPC Southwind is ripe for another. In his last appearance, he lost in a playoff in the last edition of the World Golf Championship in 2021. Also placed T20 in the same WGC the year prior. His default profile as a ball-striker plays up in Memphis, but that label overshadows his well-above-average touch around the greens.
Cam Davis (+170 = Top 20) … If you ever wondered what it looks like to offset five top 10s with 11 missed cuts in 24 starts, the talented Aussie is wearing that at the moment. He’s just 62nd in the FedExCup, which is second lowest in the standings among all golfers with as many as five top 10s. (At 80th, David Lingmerth didn’t qualify despite totaling the same.) The argument is that that’s exactly why Davis is dangerous at TPC Southwind. Of those with everything to gain and nothing to lose, he presents the most firepower. He also finished T13 here last year and tuned up for the Playoffs with a T10 at the 3M Open and a T7 at the Wyndham Championship.
J.J. Spaun (-200 = Top 40) … He’s not the chip-and-a-chair guy, but the 69-seed is sitting next to him. (Ben Griffin at 70th.) Spaun has surged of late, at least relative to the ups and downs this season. Since the Rocket Mortgage Classic, all four of his starts resulted in a top 40. The pop was a T10 at the Barracuda Championship. Suffice it to say that he’d love to finish what he started at TPC Southwind last year. After opening with a field-low-tying 62, he was the outright leader after the second and third rounds before drifting badly to T42. As a proficient ball-striker, he feeds nicely into the course, but like Matsuyama above, Spaun’s short game also is vastly underrated.
Odds were sourced on Aug. 8, 2023. For live odds, BetMGM.
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Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on
