2023 Wyndham Championship Golf Betting Tips: Sedgefield CC Course Preview

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Wyndham Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo codeGRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on PGADFS Pick’em entries this week!

With the FedEx Cup Playoffs on the horizon, the Wyndham Championship presents the final opportunity for players to qualify for the 70-person field. Accordingly, the field for the Wyndham Championship will see a bit of a boost as several high-profile names aim to keep their seasons alive. Last year’s champion, Tom Kim, will not be able to defend with an injury but several pros in the field boast plenty of course history. Who will claim the final purse of FedEx Cup points before the regular season ends? Will Justin Thomas make the playoffs? Let’s dig into betting odds, the field, and Sedgefield Country Club.

2023 Wyndham Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – August 1st – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Wyndham Championship:

• 2022 – Tom Kim (-20)
• 2021 – Kevin Kisner (-15)
• 2020 – Jim Herman (-21)
• 2019 – J.T. Poston (-22)
• 2018 – Brandt Snedeker (-21)
• 2017 – Henrik Stenson (-22)
• 2016 – Si Woo Kim (-21)

All of the talk this weekend will be about the fate of golfers with regard to the FedEx Cup playoffs. Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, and Adam Scott are the most notable players on the outside looking in — all within 10 spots of the playoffs. Less notably, but noteworthy for our column, Justin Suh, Garrick Higgo, and K.H. Lee are looking at a good weekend punching a ticket to the playoffs.

What about players in the playoffs but just on the line? Cam Davis, Ben Griffin, Austin Eckroat, and Stephen Jaegar are sitting from 64-70 and will need a productive week to guard against being climbed over. Everybody clinging on to hope or protecting their spot is in this week’s field. The smaller field size for the St. Jude next week makes for far more drama at Sedgefield Country Club.

Hideki Matsuyama shares the top spot on the odds board with course horses Sungjae Im and Russell Henley. Im and Henley have a phenomenal track record at Sedgefield and should draw the attention of bettors this week. Hideki has a spotty history at this course even if his made cuts are all strong finishes. Matsuyama is likely looking to bolster his position in the playoffs, as he currently sits outside of the top 50 (the cutoff spot for the BMW Championship).

Former winner, Si Woo Kim, is just below the top tier of golfers and has quite the history at Sedgefield Country Club. His win in 2016 was followed by a missed cut but then three consecutive top fives in his last three starts. Kim will be a popular bet, DFS play, OAD play, etc… Currently sitting in the top 20 of FedEx Cup standings, we should assume Kim is here for only one reason… to win.

Let’s take a look at Sedgefield Country Club.

2023 Wyndham Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Sedgefield CC
• Date: August 3 – 6
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,131
• Greens: Bermuda

A Donald Ross design, Sedgefield Country Club is a prototypical short course on the PGA Tour. Favoring accuracy off the tee over distance, the tournament will likely resemble similar editions over the last month of wedge-putter birdiefests.

The plurality of Par 4’s on the course fall between 400-450 yards. The abundance of short Par 4’s means that the bulk of approach shots on the course fall within the 150-175 yard range.

Denny McCarthy, Aaron Rai, and Brendon Todd are the top three in this Par 4 range with Rai the top player in that given proximity range over his last 36 rounds. Rai is just inside the top 70 ahead of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

For the top ten finishers at this event, putting is four times as relevant as around-the-green play with approach play roughly 2.5x as vital. As mentioned previously, this will become an approach and putting contest when players can find the right spot on fairways. As evidenced by the scores of recent winners, we should anticipate scoring being plentiful.

The two par 5’s are easily the best scoring holes on the course with eagle rates above 4%. We will include eagles in our modeling this week to see who most frequently converts these opportunities, as these two holes will likely need to be birdie-or-better holes. Unsurprisingly, four of the hardest holes on the course are the longest — the par 4’s above 500 yards and both par 3’s above 200 yards will be holes where players look to make par and attack the rest of the course.

For modeling purposes, we are going to focus on scoring. SG: Approach, Fairways, Putting, Par 4: 400-450 yards, Proximity 150-175 yards, Eagles, and BOB% will be the key statistics we emphasize when hoping to cull out an outright winner. Given the field strength, we could see another first-time winner on tour a la Lee Hodges last week. Who will come out on top? Let’s take a look at a few golfers.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Denny McCarthy +2500

Nobody in the field rates out as well over his last 36 rounds on tour. Despite a missed cut at The Open Championship, McCarthy is putting together one of his best seasons on tour with a win seemingly just over the horizon line.

McCarthy takes apart Par 4’s between 400-450 yards and is easily the best putter in the field — gaining over a stroke per round on the greens. The putter doesn’t just save par for Denny. Instead, McCarthy’s flatstick generates plenty of birdies as Denny sits sixth in BOB%. The first win on tour has been on layaway.

We must consider him for an outright victory as we’ve done a handful of times this season. He will be a popular DFS play and likely a very popular OAD selection, if he is even still available.

Aaron Rai +4000

Just behind McCarthy is Aaron Rai, who seems cut from a mold for this course. Living on fairways and excelling on short Par 4’s, Rai might be staring down the barrel of his first win on tour.

While Rai didn’t finish strong in his debut last year at the event, his form this season leaves us with hope for a great start this week. Aside from a missed cut at the Scottish Open (a completely different brand of golf), Rai has been in great form, with four top 20s and a close call in Canada. While Rai is thought of as an accurate player, he is fifth in the field in eagles.

Where he lacks is on the greens but a spike-putting week for Rai likely puts him in contention for his first career win. As an outright bet, we are looking for the top of a player’s range of outcomes. Rai’s skillset fits Sedgefield so perfectly that any success on the greens should translate to a big move on the leaderboard. Rai makes sense as an outright bet as well as a top finisher at these odds.

Alex Smalley +4000

A member of Sedgefield CC, Alex Smalley comes into this week in good form and with great success in his two starts at this course.

With plenty of local support, Smalley finished in the top 20 last year after making noise in his first appearance in 2021. Smalley has played so many rounds at this course that experience will not be a concern. Couple that with impressive recent form, and Smalley will be a popular play this week.

Sitting third in SG: Approach and 8th in the most prominent proximity range, Smalley fits his home course very well. Like Rai, Smalley will need to improve with the putter to contend. Hopefully, the familiarity with these greens helps Smalley overcome his woes on the greens, as he ranks 117th in the field.

Still, Smalley is in play as an outright and top finisher this week.

Adam Schenk +8000

Adam Schenk is already safely in the FedEx Cup playoffs. My jaw hit the floor when I saw that he sits in 23rd in the standings. That said, I should not have been shocked.

Aside from some big-time events as of late, Schenk boasts four top ten’s in his last four made cuts. In these fields, Schenk has thrived. He sits inside the top ten in approach, short par 4’s, and the given proximity range. Like Rai, Schenk seems cut for this course.

The main difference? Adam Schenk can putt. Ranked 15th in the field, Schenk will cash in on the opportunities created by a stellar approach game. While his history at Sedgefield CC is not great (4 out of 5 missed cuts), Schenk is clearly a different player this season. At these odds, he is a cheap addition to an outright betting card but a very sensible top finisher play.

@JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.