Golfbet Insider: FedEx St. Jude Championship

17H AGO

Greetings, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers. Welcome to the FedExCup Playoffs.

Have you been patient? Have you resisted burning starts on cornerstones previously in Segment 4? If so, bravo. No matter your position entering the final phase, end-loading is the priority because FedEx bonus points are quadrupled for each of the three tournaments in the series. This includes the TOUR Championship at which FedExCup points are not in play, but PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf will use the same structure as what applies to the FedEx St. Jude Championship and the BMW Championship. This is stipulated in the Rules.

If we can agree that big players make big plays in big games, then there’s no argument as to why it’s forever smart to holster starts for the likes of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, the 1-, 2- and 3-seeds, respectively, for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The opening leg of the series plays out more like a crapshoot than the stops that follow, but the last thing you want is to forfeit your hard-earned margin now, only then to be stymied for the remainder. No, nothing is guaranteed, but a conservative approach over time is supported by our agreement about the big players with the FedExCup on the line.

Adding a layer of complication to the experience at TPC Southwind is that, for the first time, there is no cut in the first Playoffs event. Per tradition, the last two won’t feature cuts, either. Still, the exponential impact of the FedEx bonus points is far greater than any relative pushes in round scoring. The benefit is that you can wait until the final round before contemplating burning a start on a star who rode the bench during the first three. Remain fluid, gang.

While this column zeroes in on fantasy, my Power Rankings for the FedExCup Playoffs takes a macro approach. Included is a projection of the 30 who will advance to East Lake Golf Club and why. It’s always a fun project, at least when I can tackle it. I had filed it through 2019 before my colleague and friend, Ben Everill, pinch-hit in 2020. He subbed again last year for which I’m grateful, but it’s mine again for the 17th edition.

While we haven’t hosted One & Done content here for years if you run a pool or you’re in one and you want ideas on how to deal with the TOUR Championship, connect with me on Twitter and I’ll respond with suggestions. It’s too late to adjust for 2023, but it might be worth a peek ahead for 2024. I authored a comprehensive review of the possibilities in October of 2018 in advance of the 2019 edition of the Playoffs finale, the first that used FedExCup Starting Strokes.

Lastly, and to keep it simple for now, if you missed Monday’s announcement of the 2024 schedule, grab a snack and a beverage, and then dive into this. Then bookmark it for future review.

Collin Morikawa (+200 = Top 10) … You know he’s in possession of everything he needs to end his victory drought, and he even has experience and success at TPC Southwind, most notably a T5 last year, but if you were going to flip a unit into a top 10 every time he plays, you’d have collected only once in his last 10 starts. That ROI is no bueno. Yet, he’s still just twice the investment for the same finish this week. So, either limp in with but a fraction or dedicate it elsewhere. Lean into the latter.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, Aug. 9, at 6:00 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Wyndham Clark (-105 = Top 20) … The funny thing about the opener of the Playoffs is how it often serves as a tune-up for the heavyweights to dig in for the remainder. It’s tough enough to lock in for four rounds much less across consecutive weeks. Add a third and, well, they know how to balance the intensity in the long term. That’s what makes him so intriguing. He’s this close to joining the stable of said studs but he still steps forward from the other crowd that often generates the headlines in the opener. Even better, his strength throughout the bag is lifted by his sixth gear to send it on command. He’s ideal for chasers in a One & Done because front-runners will be playing defense.

Tyrrell Hatton (+200 = Top 10) … Yes, my endorsement for this prop suggests that he should have appeared in the Power Rankings, but I’m reaching to grab onto some meat in the limited field with no cut. I noted in the Power Rankings for the FedExCup Playoffs (linked in the opening) that he’s gone 15 consecutive starts in majors without a top 10 and he’s popped for only one in the Playoffs, that a seventh-place finish in the 2020 TOUR Championship. So, the soapbox statement for why things will be different now is because the 31-year-old is firmly in his prime and he’s logged his most consistently strong season on the PGA TOUR despite the absence of a victory. In 18 starts, he’s connected for a career-best seven top 10s.

Jason Day (+350 = Lowest Score Over 72 Holes – Group D) … This is the first time that I’ve tapped into the group bets. The other four in this one are Jordan Spieth (+300), Matt Fitzpatrick (+333), Cameron Young (+333) and Sepp Straka (+500). That Day and Straka are the longest is the same reason why I love the Aussie. He’s been enigmatic inside the ropes since the Masters, but a win at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a co-champion of the B-flight at The Open Championship were dazzlers. His Playoffs experience also is vast. Put it all together and there’s a feeling that the joke is on the rest of the field. He’ll be economical in flourishing just enough to remain in position to pounce without notice. That’s a speculative bettor’s secret formula.

Jordan Spieth (-105 = Top 20) … I mean, fine. If there was a cut, I’d have considered him in a parlay and the board overall is a little thin given the format. He does have a pair of T12s at TPC Southwind, both when it hosted the limited-field, no-cut World Golf Championship, so there’s that. I just don’t love the fit, and I don’t think I will again next week (he didn’t play Olympia Fields in the 2020 BMW Championship), but his class is permanent and he’s 31st in the FedExCup, so I dig the edge to climb inside the top 30 and not squander this opportunity.

Corey Conners (+160 = Top Canadian)
Tommy Fleetwood (+250 = Top English)
Sungjae Im (+120 = Top 20)
Hideki Matsuyama (+333 = Top Asian)
Rory McIlroy (+150 = Top Brit and Irish)
Brandon Wu (-125 = Top 40)

Tom Kim (-105 = Top 20) … It’s only a matter of time before a touring professional develops some scar tissue, that which can be seen or the variety that touches the soul. In his case, and excuse the pun, he probably won’t miss a step in getting back after it after a fortnight of resting and recovering from a sprained right ankle that forced him to miss his first title defense on the PGA TOUR at the Wyndham Championship. He declared this past Sunday that he’s ready to go again. Man, it’s good to be 21. The body heals fast and the spirit is stronger than the long-term memory. As for this prop, it’s a conservative reaction respectful of his growing experience in the arena of the Playoffs.

Hayden Buckley … He can’t play if he doesn’t commit, but he can’t advance if he doesn’t play. Out for six weeks with a torn rib muscle, the PGA TOUR sophomore is 56th in the FedExCup. In fact, he had missed four straight cuts prior to stepping aside. When he last cashed with a T26 at the PGA Championship, he was 35th in points, so he could afford the time to heal. He’s a wild card in his second trip to TPC Southwind (T61, 2022). In a vacuum, he’s a splendid fit for the exam, but the analytics don’t take into account competitive rust.

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 J.T. Poston = T7
2 Russell Henley = T2
3 Denny McCarthy = MC
4 Si Woo Kim = T33
5 Alex Smalley = MC
6 Byeong Hun An = T2
7 Sungjae Im = T14
8 Shane Lowry = T51
9 Adam Scott = T7
10 Kevin Streelman = MC
11 Hideki Matsuyama = MC
12 Adam Schenk = T64
13 Billy Horschel = 4th
14 Akshay Bhatia = MC
15 Beau Hossler = MC
* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result
Garrick Higgo (+320 = Top 20 and +175 = Top South African) = Mc
David Lingmerth (+260 = Top 40) = MC
Taylor Pendrith (+138 = Top 40) = MC
Justin Suh (+138 = Top 40) = MC
Kevin Yu (+130 = Top 40) = MC

GOLFBET INSIDER
Team (recommended bet) = Result
*Wild Card: Webb Simpson (+120 = Top 40) = T5
*Also Starring: Sam Burns (+110 = Top 20) = T14
Also Starring: Justin Thomas (+170 = Miss the Cut) = T12
Tap-in: PARLAY: Cam Davis, Aaron Rai and Alex Smalley (+188 = All to Make the Cut) = T7/MC/MC
Tap-in: Zac Blair (+225 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Chesson Hadley (+400 = Top 20) = MC
*Tap-in: Nicolai Højgaard (+120 = Top 40) = T14
Tap-in: Zach Johnson (+240 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Russell Knox (+300 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Alex Noren (+260 = Top Swedish) = T38 (Ludvig Åberg = T14)
Tap-in: Richy Werenski (+450 = Top 40) = T71
Tap-in: Dylan Wu (+150 = Top 40) = T51
Tap-in: Carson Young (+650 = Top 20) = T67
Returning: Cameron Champ (+200 = Top 40) = MC
*Returning: Nicholas Lindheim (+100 = Top 40) = T27

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Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on