Motivated FedExCup movers bring value at Wyndham Championship

The Wyndham Championship has long been the last chance saloon for the FedExCup Playoffs but it has arguably never been more important than this week.

For the first time the Playoffs has instituted a top 70 cut off just to get into the postseason, down from the 125 of years past. Sure, the prospect of your PGA TOUR card might not be on the line, but great perks in regard to Designated events next year certainly are.

When it comes to betting on those teeing it up at Sedgefield Country Club, you do need to factor in the stress that comes with their FedExCup position. If a player is on the outside looking in, are they the type to embrace the challenge of knowing exactly where they need to finish, or is that looming target something that can derail their form.

As much as we all love the volatility of the projected points race over the four rounds, the reality over the years is only two or three players generally make the jump inside the bubble in these situations.

The key for the bettors out there is trying to figure out who those players are.

But it’s not just the top 70 mark one should keep an eye on. The three-week Playoffs run starts with 70 players at the FedEx St. Jude Championship before the top 50 after Memphis make it to the BMW Championship in Chicago. From there the top 30 make the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club and a chance for the $18 million FedExCup.

So, when I was looking at options for Sedgefield, I’m paying attention to players around the top 30 and top 50 bubble as well. They know every point counts and the top 50 is significant in terms of designated event status for 2024. Top 30 players pick up the majors as well.

Speaking of the FedExCup, Jon Rahm (+260) is the favorite to win it all with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy close behind at +350. Despite what could happen in the opening two Playoffs events, and possible fluctuations, this trio certainly look set to start in Atlanta ahead of the majority of the field, making them worthy favorites.

But you can get higher odds on other contenders – including the other seven players currently inside the top 10 on the points list.

Max Homa (+1800), Wyndham Clark (+2800), Brian Harman (+2300), Viktor Hovland (+2300), Keegan Bradley (+3000), Rickie Fowler (+2800) and Tony Finau (+3500) all currently sit well placed for a run at the FedExCup. I wouldn’t sleep on Jason Day (+3500) in 11th place either.

But time to get back to Sedgefield. Historically this has been the domain of great putting and great accuracy on approach. So, the tentpoles of Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Putting must be heavily considered.

The last six winners were all inside the top 12 in SG: Approach for the week and also inside the top 25 for SG: Putting. The main focus in from 150-175 yards.

Finding the unicorn who plays lights out on both approach and putting is hard on the PGA TOUR. So, when it comes to a place like Sedgefield you have to generally slide one way or the other, and hope for that one week the other side of their game lifts. I’m going to go with two known ball-strikers, even though the season numbers from one is actually skewed towards his putting!

It has been rocks and diamonds for Hideki at the Wyndham Championship with four missed cuts and three top 15s. But I’m starting to warm to the Japanese superstar’s game of late. At 11th in TOUR in SG: Approach he represents a solid pick despite the fact he’s ranked 125th on TOUR in SG: Putting. Clearly, he will need to have a big week on the greens to contend. From 150-175 yards Matsuyama ranks 21st on TOUR in proximity. Matsuyama also sits 56th in the FedExCup. He's secure in the top 70 but is hunting the top 50 and top 30… enough to keep his motivation high.

Hideki Matsuyama goes flag hunting to set up birdie at 3M Open

One of the great PGA TOUR streaks is at risk here. Scott is one of just two players (Matt Kuchar) to make the FedExCup Playoffs in every season since its inception and at 81st in the standings he needs a big week. In what will not be a shock to anyone who knows me – I am backing the Aussie to get it done. At 77 points behind the current No. 70 Scott needs, at bare minimum, a top 9 finish this week. He famously lost in the six-man playoff in 2021, missing a close putt to win. Scott ranks a handy 31st in SG: Putting this season and a surprising 145th in SG: Approach. He has gained shots in four of his last seven starts on SG: Approach though after a terrible start to the season.

DENNY McCARTHY (+330 Top 10)

Ranked third in SG: Putting this season and with three prior top 25s at the Wyndham Championship, McCarthy is a man I’ve certainly got my eye on. A respectable 76th on Approach, McCarthy is also 17th in scoring average this season – and you need to go low at Sedgefield. With six top 10s this season, three in his last five starts including his playoff loss at the Memorial Tournament, he sits 25th in the FedExCup. He knows he needs to bank a few more points in the next three weeks to secure his place in Atlanta and get a maiden Masters berth.

Denny McCarthy buries a 29-foot eagle putt at John Deere

The 2016 champion loves the layout and is in form this season. At 20th in SG: Approach he is the accurate hitter one can rely on. And sure, he ranks 132nd in Putting but he’s always better on the greens at Sedgefield. On top of his win, he was fifth in 2019, third in 2020 and runner-up in 2021. He’s certainly a horse for this course.

FURTHER FEDEXCUP RELATED PLAYS

As mentioned earlier, history shows us a few players will break the bubble. I’ve already put Adam Scott in one of those slots but here are others I like who need a big week to advance. Look to pick some of them in the top 20 markets. Most likely the first two.

Shane Lowry: 76th in the FedExCup. Needs minimum top 23 to advance. Two previous top 25s. Ranks 25th in SG: Approach.
Justin Suh: 77thin the FedExCup. Needs minimum top 19 to advance. Ranks 12th in SG: Putting.
Harry Hall: 86th in the FedExCup. Needs minimum top 6 to advance. Ranks 8th in SG: Putting.
Aaron Baddeley: 92nd in the FedExCup. Needs minimum top 4 to advance: Ranks 25th in SG: Putting.
Gary Woodland: 97th in the FedExCup. Needs minimum top 3 to advance. Ranks 10th in SG: Approach.
Akshay Bhatia: 99th in the FedExCup. Needs minimum top 3 to advance. Ranks 18th in SG: Approach.

Matsuyama is one man I like around the top 50 bubble but there are more who fit the course profile. The top 20 markets remain a solid start point.

J.T. Poston: 49th in FedExCup. The 2019 champion comes off his contention at the 3M Open, the third top 10 in recent weeks.
Andrew Putnam: 46th in FedExCup. Ranks 35th in SG Approach AND 10th in SG: Putting.
Alex Smalley: 47th in FedExCup. Two top 30s prior. Member of Sedgefield. 31st in SG: Approach.
Davis Riley: 53rd in FedExCup. T13 in lone appearance. 39th SG: Approach.

The motivation for the TOUR Championship is high for many but two Sedgefield specialists know this is their chance to make a run inside the mark before the Playoffs begin. They are further options for Top 10 markets.

Russell Henley: 34th in FedExCup. Three straight top 10s at Wyndham. Ranks 23rd SG: Approach.
Sungjae Im: 36th in FedExCup. Four top 25s at Wyndham, three top 10s. Ranks 29th in SG: Total.