SMU vs. Tulane betting lines, props, predictions: Preseason favorites bring opposing styles to AAC Championship Game

SMU and Tulane were two of the favorites in the preseason to meet in the American Athletic Championship. Neither team has been an underdog a single time in conference play, and neither lost a conference game. In many respects, both teams have won the games they were supposed to and lost outside the conference against Power Five teams.

There are a few things we can draw from their schedules, though. SMU is 7-5 against the spread and went 5-3 ATS during conference play. Tulane is 5-7 against the spread and went 3-5 ATS in the conference. That would suggest SMU has played better in American Athletic play. 

Tulane has played better, though, over the last two weeks, covering easily in their last two games. Meanwhile, SMU is 1-1, covering the spread in the last two weeks. The American Athletic Championship will be very close; the Mustangs and Green Wave are two of the best teams outside the Power Five. 

Fans and sports bettors can watch the American Athletic Championship on ABC at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday. Let's look at each team's most recent betting news, live odds for the game, player props worth considering and make a betting prediction.

Live odds for SMU vs. Tulane: American Athletic Championship

Here are the SMU vs. Tulane American Athletic Championship live odds with moneyline, spread and total points markets available from the best online sports betting apps.

SMU Mustangs betting news

The SMU offense is the team's strength, and the Mustangs have hit the OVER in five of their last six chances. SMU has scored no less than 36 points in each of their last six games with three games over 55 points. They put up points in a hurry with one of the best passing attacks in the country.

Quarterback Preston Stone has thrown for 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Stone is not much of a runner but does have 198 yards this season and can be dangerous in the red zone with four rushing touchdowns this season.

What makes the Mustangs passing attack so difficult to defend is their deep receiving corps. SMU has eight players with at least 300 receiving yards, and the leading receiver is tight end RJ Maryland with 462 yards. Those eight receivers each have at least 18 receptions, as Stone spreads the ball around as much as any quarterback in college football. 

That forces opposing defenses to defend countless options and account for a lot while also having to keep up with frequent substitutions. Elite passing attacks have trouble sometimes if you take away their top option. Not SMU, because if you take away one player, there are seven more just as capable. 

The rushing attack is also solid with three running backs splitting the carries. Leading rusher Jaylan Knighton has 645 yards and six touchdowns on 113 carries. LJ Johnson Jr. is not far behind with 542 rushing yards, three touchdowns and 99 carries, while Camar Wheaton is third in rushing with 393 yards and five touchdowns on 76 carries. Each of the three averages at least 5.2 yards per carry, making it hard to put the defense's focus on any one of them.

Tulane Green Wave betting news

Tulane is very different from SMU, priding itself on defense. The offense is capable, but the defense is the better of the two units for the Green Wave. Their defense is great at taking the ball away with 22 forced turnovers. The Green Wave defense is 11th in the country in turnovers forced.

The Tulane defense has been the primary reason why 10 of 12 times this season, the UNDER has hit for total points. The Green Wave are 11-1, and the season's only loss was when the defense gave up 37 to Ole Miss. No other opponent has scored over 28 points, and Tulane has won each game. It is not a coincidence the offense is average, and if the defense does not play its best, that can leave the Green Wave susceptible to losing in high-scoring games.

The leaders for Tulane defensively are Lance Robinson, Darius Hodge and Jseus Machado. Robinson is the defensive backs leader with four interceptions and a fumble recovery. Hodge only has 23 tackles this season but leads the team with 7.5 sacks. Machado leads the team at linebacker with 92 tackles.

While the offense may only be average, their star running back Makhi Hughes is anything but average. He is the team leader in all-purpose yardage with 1,246 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Hughes is the team's workhorse with 232 carries on the season. He'll need to be at his best for the Green Wave, but quarterback Michael Pratt is the key to coming away with a win on Saturday.

The junior quarterback has been solid this season with 2,168 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He has been what Tulane needed to be 11-1, but he has not had any eye-popping games where he has led the team to victory because of his performance. Pratt has not had a 300-yard passing game this season but might need to in the American Athletic Championship to beat SMU and their explosive offense.

SMU vs. Tulane prop bets at FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel has some of the best value prop bets for the American Athletic Championship.

• SMU +4.5 and OVER 50.5 points (+430)
• SMU +4.5 and UNDER 50.5 points (+260)
• Tulane -4.5 and OVER 50.5 points (+280)
• Tulane -4.5 and UNDER 50.5 points (+175)
• Alt points
  • 34.5 points OVER (-520) / UNDER (+350)
  • 38.5 points OVER (-310) / UNDER (+230)
  • 42.5 points OVER (-192) / UNDER (+148)
  • 46.5 points OVER (-120) / UNDER (-104)
  • 54.5 points OVER (+200) / UNDER (-265)
  • 58.5 points OVER (+300) / UNDER (-430)
  • 62.5 points OVER (+440) / UNDER (-700)

SMU vs. Tulane prediction: SMU offense can't be stopped, wins AAC Championship

The AAC Championship will come down to which team can dictate their style. The Mustangs want a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Green Wave will try to slow things down, run the football and play great defense. 

However, SMU's offense has too many weapons to slow down; 11 different players have over 300 all-purpose yards and will pressure the Tulane defense as much, if not more, than any team they have played all season. Unless the Tulane offense has a big game, something we have yet to see them do much against good teams, this matchup is SMU's to lose.