Spain vs. Sweden Picks, Predictions & Women's World Cup Odds: Sweden Aim to Avoid Unwanted World Cup Record

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14 August 2023

Spain vs. Sweden Picks, Predictions & Women's World Cup Odds: Sweden Aim to Avoid Unwanted World Cup Record

A spot in the Women’s World Cup final is at stake as Spain and Sweden meet for the first time in the tournament’s history. Read on for our Spain-Sweden picks based on the Women's World Cup odds from our best World Cup betting sites.

Sweden have now reached the semifinals in four straight tournaments. They failed to make the final at the 2019 edition of the FIFA Women’s World Cup and Euro 2022. The team also managed to win its semifinal at the Tokyo Olympics, but Canada beat Sweden on penalties during the final.

This is their fifth World Cup semifinal after reaching the final in 2003 but losing in 1991, 2011, and 2019. They could become the first team to lose four times at this stage of the competition.

This tournament is only Spain’s third World Cup appearance, and they’ve never reached the semifinals.

Here is our best Spain-Sweden pick for the Women's World Cup (odds via our best sports betting apps; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Spain vs. Sweden pick

Both teams to score (+115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Spain’s fierce attack meets Sweden’s formidable defense in the first semifinal of the 2023 tournament. The Swedes have conceded just two goals during the competition, while Spain have scored 15 en route to the final four. Spain’s expected goals is 16.7 compared to Sweden’s 10.4.

Spain have won five and lost one over their last six matches in all competitions. That defeat was in their final World Cup group game against Japan, when they lost 4-0. The Spaniards scored 24 goals in the six-game period, tallying first in four of the six contests. They notched nine first-half goals, and their opponents netted four times in the first 45 minutes.

Meanwhile, the Swedish side has won four and drawn two in its last six. The squad scored 14 and conceded five during that stretch, also netting first in four of the six. They registered five goals in the first half, while their opponents failed to find the net before the break.

Seven of Sweden's 11 goals so far have come from set-piece situations (four on a corner, one free-kick, and two on penalties). Their four goals from corners at this edition of the women's world cup are more than the team netted in the three previous Women's World Cups combined (three).

Spain have taken 132 shots so far in this competition, amassing at least 20 in four of their five games. Since 2011, only Germany has finished with more shots in a single tournament (181 in 2015).

Both teams clearly pose a threat on offense. Backing each to score is the best play for this match.

The stats are telling us that goals are inevitable in this contest, even with Sweden’s strong defense. Both sides boast a plus-nine goal differential during the tournament. Spain have scored seven goals against European opponents in their last two knockout matches. Sweden have won their last two encounters with European teams at this year’s World Cup.

Both of these sides have consistently been scoring first in each of the last six matches. If one scores, it could be difficult to stop the other from finding the net, especially with the current form of each team. The previous match between these two squads ended 1-1 in October 2022.

Although I’m confident both teams will score, I’m giving the play three stars because of the tension that comes with a semifinal clash. No team will want to slip up. However, with so much at stake, the game could open up and offenses will take over as soon as one side scores.

Spain vs. Sweden best odds

Caesars (+115)

Each of our five best sportsbooks were posting this play at +100 on Saturday. There’s been significant movement at Caesars and bet365, with those shops moving to +115 and +110, respectively.

Swedish defender Amanda Ilestedt is in the race for the tournament’s golden boot with four goals so far. All her goals have come from set pieces. She's +1100 as an anytime scorer in this match.