Steve Palmer's Farmers Insurance Open final-round golf betting tips and predictions
Where to watch the Farmers Insurance Open
Sky Sports Golf, 5.30pm Saturday
Best bets
Nicolai Hojgaard to win the Farmers Insurance Open
3pts each-way 4-1 general
Ludvig Aberg to win the 6.37pm threeball
3pts 4-5 bet365
Ludvig Aberg to win the Farmers Insurance Open
1pt each-way 20-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
Story so far
The Farmers Insurance Open started on Wednesday this week and will finish on Saturday evening, so PGA Tour punters have just 18 holes left to consider. The Torrey Pines showpiece is wide open going into the denouement.
A gaggle of maidens took an early grip on the tournament, but all of them struggled to kick on in round three, resulting in a bunched leaderboard in California.
Torrey Pines was drenched at the start of the tournament – the San Diego area suffered severe flooding just prior to the Tour arriving – but sunshine has slowly but surely dried the turf. The course has been getting firmer and faster, and another dry, warm day is forecast for Saturday.
Stephan Jaeger, a pre-tournament 70-1 chance, is one shot ahead going into the final round. The German is 100-30 favourite.
Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard
-11 Stephan Jaeger
-10 Matthieu Pavon, Nicolai Hojgaard
-9 Thomas Detry
-8 Taylor Pendrith, Trace Crowe, Jake Knapp, Taylor Montgomery, Joe Highsmith
-7 Robby Shelton, Parker Coody, Ludvig Aberg, Maverick McNealy, Xander Schauffele, Emiliano Grillo, Ryan Brehm, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris
Best odds for the Farmers Insurance Open
100-30 S Jaeger, 4 N Hojgaard, 7 M Pavon, 14 X Schauffele, T Detry, 20 L Aberg, T Montgomery, 22 T Pendrith, T Finau, 28 W Zalatoris, 40 J Knapp, 45 bar
Farmers Insurance Open final-round predictions
Torrey Pines South is back playing as a brute for the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open. Receptive greens took the edge off the famous layout early in the tournament, but Californian sunshine has got Torrey back to usual.
With the leaders treading water in round three, dozens of players will still feel in with a chance of lifting the Farmers trophy.
Golf fans across the globe are alive to the possibility of the Hojgaard twins creating more history. With Rasmus Hojgaard joint-leader and short-price favourite for the Ras al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour with two rounds to go, the Hojgaards could be set for a remarkable DP World Tour and PGA Tour double.
Nicolai Hojgaard is by far the most appealing of the front four on the Farmers leaderboard, which has a DP World Tour feel to it. Nicolai, Matthieu Pavon and Thomas Detry are Europeans who all cut their teeth on the DP World Tour.
Hojgaard, of course, has been a colossus on the DPWT, winning the DPWT Championship in November, overcoming the likes of Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton and Rory McIlroy to triumph in Dubai. The 22-year-old is a three-time DPWT champion who seems destined for greatness.
Hojgaard struck his ball superbly in the Dubai Desert Classic last week, but putted poorly. That long-game class has allowed him to make a huge impact on his Farmers debut and the Danish dude is only one shot behind going into round four.
Stephan Jaeger is a 34-year-old PGA Tour maiden. He has won six times on the Korn Ferry Tour, but has lacked the polish to get the job done in elite company. The Hojgaard twins have the potential to be top-ten in the world players for most of their careers, so Nicolai makes much more appeal than the one man in front if him on the Farmers leaderboard.
The chances of a European victor seem high. Hojgaard arguably has the best chance of delivering European success, but his Ryder Cup colleague Ludvig Aberg seems well in the hunt for Torrey Pines glory, too.
It shows how bunched the leaderboard is that Aberg is in a nine-way tie for tenth place at seven under par. Pre-tournament Racing Post Sport hope Max Homa is tied for 27th place – the defending champion is only six shots off the lead – and everyone in the top 30 knows that a low final round could deliver the ultimate result.
Aberg will feel extremely blessed to still have a winning chance given how badly he has putted over the first three days. He four-putted the par-five 13th in round two, putting for eagle before carding a bogey, but the Swede's ball-striking class has kept him in contention.
Hojgaard and Aberg are making their debut at the Farmers – and both have immediately shown they possess the long-game ability to handle the Torrey Pines layout. With three rounds of competitive course experience under their belt, expect both the Ryder Cup stars to finish this tournament strongly and threaten the silverware.
Aberg also appeals for his threeball – against Parker Coody and Robby Shelton. Aberg is different gravy to his American opposition, who both reside outside the world's top 150. Aberg has the potential to reach the top spot in the world rankings and he has quickly made a habit of incredible final rounds in his professional career.
