Super Bowl Predictions & Picks 2024: Chiefs Worth Backing Over Favorite 49ers?

sportsbookreview.com

18 January 2024

Super Bowl Predictions & Picks 2024: Chiefs Worth Backing Over Favorite 49ers?

Super Bowl Sunday is around the corner as we enter the NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs and make our best Super Bowl predictions based on the NFL odds.

All the best Super Bowl betting sites agree that the San Francisco 49ers are the consensus favorites by the Super Bowl odds, while the Baltimore Ravens have the best odds for AFC contenders. Much has changed, however, as this year has seen more twists and turns than an M. Night Shyamalan film.

As we get closer to the Big Game, expect to see more and more Super Bowl props and Super Bowl player props to complement our offerings below.

Prediction: Who will win Super Bowl 2024?

Our best sports betting apps all agree that the 49ers will win the Super Bowl with odds at +175 via DraftKings. The Ravens, as mentioned above, have the best odds among AFC teams at +290, while the Buffalo Bills (+500) and Kansas City Chiefs (+750) round out the top four.

Here's how those odds translate to implied probability, according to our odds converter:

49ers: 36.36%
Ravens: 25.64%
Bills: 16.67%
Chiefs: 11.76%

Super Bowl prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (+750 via bet365)

This is strictly a value play as we enter the Divisional Round, for many reasons, but getting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at better than 7/1 odds seems like a great ticket to hold with just eight teams remaining.

I want to see the Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers as the two biggest underdog winners of Wild Card Weekend, but value will still be with those clubs should my dreams come true and they advance into the conference championships. For now, let's play it safe with great value in the Chiefs and a team that has reached the AFC Championship five straight seasons.

Yes, the offense isn't the same. Keep in mind this team won the Super Bowl with Tyreek Hill and still blew the doors off the Miami Dolphins to remind everyone what an actual elite team looks like on the field.

The Chiefs go to Buffalo and face a team that has won a shaky six straight games, with revenge on their mind following an offensive offsides call that actually would've seen the Chiefs win the regular-season head-to-head meeting and had this game played in Kansas City instead.

The defense for Kansas City has also been completely overlooked, and with the amount of Unders Buffalo sees at home it might be wise to take an Under play on the Chiefs-Bills game.

The Chiefs may go to Orchard Park and lose, but getting 7/1 odds on a serial-winning team like the Chiefs seems like a great value play to test in the Super Bowl market entering Divisional Round weekend.

Super Bowl 2024 odds

Super Bowl odds updated Jan. 17

The biggest shift carrying over from Wild Card Weekend saw the Texans shorten while knocking the Cleveland Browns out of the playoffs in convincing fashion. Also, the Packers shot up the board after dethroning the NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys.

Super Bowl exact result odds

Super Bowl odds updated Jan. 17

As to be expected, the 49ers meeting the Ravens in the Super Bowl is the most likely outcome, according to the sportsbooks. Most of our NFL prop betting sites expect the 49ers to win that contest, but Caesars surprisingly has equal odds on either outcome with a shared 20% implied probability.

Super Bowl finalists odds

Super Bowl odds updated Jan. 17

Super Bowl winning conference odds

Super Bowl odds updated Jan. 17

Be cautious of the vig (the cut of all wagers taken by the sportsbook) on this market, as DraftKings lists both the NFC and AFC with better than a 50% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The AFC - which features three of the four teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds - is the favorite to win.

Super Bowl winning division odds

Super Bowl odds updated Jan. 17.

It's interesting to note that the NFC North - which has two teams remaining in the playoffs entering the Divisional Round - has the fourth-shortest odds of any division to feature the Super Bowl champion. The NFC West, AFC North, and AFC East all feature just one remaining team (as do the NFC South and AFC South).

Super Bowl MVP 2024 odds

(Super Bowl MVP odds as of Jan. 17)

The 49ers feature two of the four players with the shortest odds to win Super Bowl MVP. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson - the presumptive regular-season NFL MVP winner - is the consensus favorite across the market.