Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for National Bank Open in Toronto
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1.5pts Daniil Medvedev to win the title at 9/2 (General)
1pt Casper Ruud to win the third quarter at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
National Bank Open
- Toronto, Canada (outdoor hard)
Three weeks on from his epic Wimbledon final with Novak Djokovic, world number one Carlos Alcaraz returns to action in Toronto.
The latest Masters 1000 event on the ATP Tour represents another gear change on the road to the US Open, which begins at the end of this month, and so it’s not just Alcaraz taking his first summer steps onto a hardcourt.
The likes of DANIIL MEDVEDEV, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune are all in the same boat, although Djokovic has opted out – he’ll return next week in Cincinnati instead.
Nevertheless, this is a quality field for Alcaraz to deal with.
The layers are becoming increasingly wary of the Spaniard as he continues to justify the hype which has surrounded his early career.
Following Wimbledon, he’s now the holder of two of the four Grand Slam titles – it should not be forgotten he won the US Open last summer – and the way he played in SW19 showed he’s a level above virtually everyone when on song.
Alcaraz is a top price of 6/4 to win this week and he may well go on to make those odds look attractive but, in the here and now, that’s not a price for me.
There will have understandably been some downtime following his Wimbledon triumph and the transition to a different surface is rarely problem-free, even for the best.
They play on a Laykold surface here these days, having fallen into line with the US Open, and it’s played at a fairly medium pace the past couple of years – the men last visited two years ago.
Alcaraz has also landed in the tougher half of the draw, one featuring Sinner, Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas, who ended his title drought in Los Cabos on Saturday and holds a strong record in Toronto having made the semis and final in his last two visits.
As for Sinner, he is one of only four men to beat Alcaraz this season and that came on Laykold courts Miami; they could meet in the semis here.
He impressed on the North American hardcourts earlier this season, making that Miami final and the semis in Indian Wells, and arrives here off the back of a last-four run at Wimbledon.
For those prepared to take on Alcaraz in the top half, Sinner looks a decent shout at 12/1.
However, my best bets come in the bottom half where second seed Medvedev looks to have a strong chance.
He’s the tour leader for hardcourt match wins so far in 2023 having captured titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and, most notably, Miami.
Medvedev will be delighted to be back on this surface following the clay and grass campaigns, although he will have taken plenty out of his run to the Wimbledon semi-finals.
The 2021 US Open champion was also a winner here the last time the event was staged in Toronto, while he was a finalist in Montreal in 2019 too.
His draw looks decent. The early rounds should allow Medvedev to play himself into the tournament, while the presence of Taylor Fritz in his quarter should be too much of a concern – the American suffered a disappointing loss to Tallon Griekspoor in Washington on Saturday night.
A semi-final against Alex Zverev (who he’s dominated in the past), Andrey Rublev or Casper Ruud would likely follow.
The biggest worry for Medvedev backers is probably the manner of his defeat to Alcaraz at Wimbledon.
He was thoroughly beaten that day, the most concerning aspect arguably the failure to produce a Plan B when the first wasn’t working.
His deep return position left him exposed time and again to Alcaraz’s strong returning, while Medvedev never really got hold of the Spaniard’s serve.
Sitting here writing shortly after my pick Alex de Minaur’s final loss to Tsitsipas in Los Cabos, it’s easy to envisage a similar scenario unfolding where everything goes right until the final before the foreseen defeat.
However, given I’ve highlighted the problems which could unseat Alcaraz before the final, I’m prepared to have a small bet on Medvedev at 9/2.
There’s also a price-based play I’m going to take here and that’s on CASPER RUUD.
The Norwegian was a big improver on the hardcourts last season, finishing runner-up at the US Open, not to mention reaching finals in Miami and at the ATP Finals in Turin.
OK, he’s not been in the greatest of form of late, last being seen losing heavily to Arthur Fils in Hamburg.
However, the start of a new hardcourt campaign brings fresh opportunity and it should be remembered it’s only a couple of months since Ruud was contesting the French Open final after a rather disappointing run-in.
It shouldn’t be too quick for him here – Cincinnati next week will likely be more awkward – and the draw has certainly been favourable.
Ruud could meet Zverev in round three, a player he crushed at Roland Garros. The pair are 1-1 on a hardcourt.
And Andrey Rublev is a potential quarter-final foe – Ruud leads the Russian 2-1 on hardcourts with the loss coming via an injury retirement.
Ruud is 40/1 here which immediately just seemed too big to me.
For those unconvinced by Medvedev, that’s an each-way bet worthy of consideration.
However, given I’m riding with the Russian in this half, my preferred method of backing Ruud is in the quarter betting.
Again, the price appeals - he’s fourth favourite in his section (Frances Tiafoe also rated more a likely winner) at 13/2 and that looks worth a try.
- Posted at 1800 BST on 6/08/23
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