Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for 2023 ATP Finals
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals
4pts win Novak Djokovic at 11/8 (bet365, betway)
0.5pt e.w. Andrey Rublev at 20/1 (BetVictor, 1/3, 1-2)
2pts Jannik Sinner to qualify for the semi-finals at 7/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Nitto ATP Finals
· Turin, Italy (indoor hard)
The ATP Finals, which get under way on Sunday, will be staged at Turin’s Pala Alpitour for the third time this year.
The main thing we’ve learned since the tournament’s move from London is that conditions are pretty fast.
The Greenset Grand Prix surface and Dunlop balls play slick, while there’s a little bit of altitude in play too – they are more than 200m above sea level in the foothills of the Alps.
As Novak Djokovic pointed out on Friday: “Maybe the fans cannot feel it, but we can feel it on the court.
“The ball flies through the air, the conditions are played different.”
The best eight players of the season qualify for the ATP’s showpiece event and, thankfully, all eight are here, unscathed from their efforts of the long season.
They are split into two groups of four with the top two in each going through to the knockout semi-finals at the weekend.
Let’s take a look at those title contenders…
GREEN GROUP
Novak Djokovic
Best odds: Title – 11/8; Win group – 4/7; Qualify for SFs – 2/9
World ranking: 1
Race to Turin position: 1
2023 win-loss record: 51-5 (6 titles – Australian Open, Roland Garros, US Open, Adelaide, Cincinnati, Paris)
2023 win-loss v top 10: 13-3
2023 indoor form: W Paris
Tournament record: 46-17 – W 22, SF 21, SF 20, Gp 19, RU 18, RU 16, W 15, W 14, W 13, W 12, Gp 11, SF 10, Gp 09, W 08, Gp 07
Recent form: W Paris
Record v group opponents:
v Sinner – overall: 3-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2023: 1-0
v Tsitsipas – overall: 11-2; indoor hard: 4-0; 2023: 1-0
v Rune – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 1-1; 2023: 1-1
Won in Turin last season and arrives here this year knowing another title would set a new ATP Finals record of seven, passing Roger Federer’s tally. Has clearly been the best player of 2023, losing only one match at the Grand Slams – the Wimbledon final to Carlos Alcaraz. Has played little since the US Open but when he did return he won the title in Paris despite his week being disrupted by illness. That says much – if the world’s best can’t beat the Serb when he’s far from 100%, what chance have they got when he’s fully fit? Loves playing indoors and definitely the man to beat here, although the bookies realise that.
Jannik Sinner
Best odds: Title – 6/1; Win group – 10/3; Qualify for SFs – 7/10
World ranking: 4
Race to Turin position: 4
2023 win-loss record: 57-14 (4 titles – Montpellier, Toronto, Beijing, Vienna)
2023 win-loss v top 10: 7-5
2023 indoor form: L16 Paris, W Vienna, RU Rotterdam, W Montpellier
Tournament record: 1-1 – Gp 21
Recent form: L16 Paris, W Vienna, L16 Shanghai, W Beijing
Record v group opponents:
v Djokovic – overall: 0-3; indoor hard: 0-0; 2023: 0-1
v Tsitsipas – overall: 2-5; indoor hard: 1-0; 2023: 1-1
v Rune – overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-1; 2023: 0-1
The home hope has been playing some fine tennis at just the right time – Sinner has won two of his last four tournaments, beating a number of his rivals for this title in the process. He may have added another in Paris but for the crazy scheduling which ended up with him withdrawing after a 2.37am finish. Has the big-hitting game which should make him tough to beat in these slick conditions, while his mental game is also strong. His record against his group rivals is rather off-putting though – Sinner is 2-10 against them.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Best odds: Title – 16/1; Win group – 7/1; Qualify for SFs – 13/8
World ranking: 6
Race to Turin position: 6
2023 win-loss record: 51-22 (1 title – Los Cabos)
2023 win-loss v top 10: 1-6
2023 indoor form: SF Paris, SF Vienna, L16 Rotterdam
Tournament record: 6-6 – Gp 22, Gp 21, Gp 20, W 19
Recent form: SF Paris, SF Vienna, SF Antwerp, L32 Shanghai, L32 Beijing
Record v group opponents:
v Djokovic – overall: 2-11; indoor hard: 0-4; 2023: 0-1
v Sinner – overall: 5-2; indoor hard: 0-1; 2023: 1-1
v Rune – overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-1; 2023: 0-0
Won this event when it was held in London in 2019 but hasn’t got out of the group stage since. It’s hard to make a strong case for him breaking that run in 2023 – Tsitsipas has won only one match against a top-10 opponent this season with his six losses to such foes all coming in straight sets. The backhand remains a weakness at this elite level and the fast courts will only expose that further. On that court-speed front, at least the serve is a strong point – the Greek leads the tour for percentage of service games won. Form has seen something of an uptick of late, too, with three semi-finals reached during the autumn indoor swing. However, in this company, I’d expect Tsitsipas to struggle given what we’ve seen from him for the most part of the season.
Holger Rune
Best odds: Title – 25/1; Win group – 10/1; Qualify for SFs – 9/5
World ranking: 10
Race to Turin position: 8
2023 win-loss record: 43-22 (1 title – Munich)
2023 win-loss v top 10: 4-7
2023 indoor form: QF Paris, SF Basel, L16 Stockholm, L16 Rotterdam, SF Montpellier
Tournament record: 0-0 (debut)
Recent form: QF Paris, SF Basel, L16 Stockholm, L64 Shanghai, L16 Beijing
Record v group opponents:
v Djokovic – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 1-1; 2023: 1-1
v Sinner – overall: 2-0; indoor hard: 1-0; 2023: 1-0
v Tsitsipas – overall: 2-0; indoor hard: 1-0; 2023: 0-0
Rune reached a career-high ranking of fourth following a strong first half of the season. However, a back injury hampered him after Wimbledon – the young Dane has won only six of 15 matches since leaving SW19. The good news is he played well in Paris recently, pushing eventual champion Djokovic hard. Indeed, his game appears to match up well with the Serb – the pair have had a series of close battles now. Interestingly, Rune is unbeaten against his other two group-stage opponents so may well fancy his chances of making the last four on his tournament debut.
RED GROUP
Carlos Alcaraz
Best odds: Title – 9/2; Win group – 13/8; Qualify for SFs – 8/15
World ranking: 2
Race to Turin position: 2
2023 win-loss record: 63-10 (6 titles – Wimbledon, Buenos Aires, Indian Wells, Barcelona, Madrid, Queen’s Club)
2023 win-loss v top 10: 9-4
2023 indoor form: L32 Paris
Tournament record: 0-0 (debut)
Recent form: L32 Paris, L16 Shanghai, SF Beijing
Record v group opponents:
v Medvedev – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2023: 2-1
v Rublev – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2023: 0-0
v Zverev – overall: 3-3; indoor hard: 0-1; 2023: 2-0
Plenty of parallels have been drawn between Alcaraz and his fellow Spaniard, Rafael Nadal, most of them complimentary. However, like Nadal, Alcaraz is struggling to win at this time of year – he’s yet to reach an ATP final in the post-US Open period of any season. There’s also no ATP indoor final appearance on the Alcaraz CV and the Turin conditions will almost certainly be quicker than ideal for the 20-year-old. That’s not to say he can’t make an impact – this is a player of immense talent – but he certainly looks too short in the betting markets.
Daniil Medvedev
Best odds: Title – 13/2; Win group – 21/10; Qualify for SFs – 8/13
World ranking: 3
Race to Turin position: 3
2023 win-loss record: 64-16 (5 titles – Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai, Miami, Rome)
2023 win-loss v top 10: 10-6
2023 indoor record: L32 Paris, RU Vienna, W Rotterdam
Tournament record: 9-7 – Gp 22, RU 21, W 20, Gp 19
Recent form: L32 Paris, RU Vienna, L32 Shanghai, RU Beijing
Record v group opponents:
v Alcaraz – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2023: 1-2
v Rublev – overall: 7-2 (6-2 tour level); indoor hard: 2-1 (1-1 TL); 2023: 0-2
v Zverev – overall: 10-7; indoor hard: 4-3; 2023: 3-0
Made the final here in 2021, the year after winning the title when the tournament was held in London for the last time. The man who has won more matches this year than anyone else in the field excels in quicker conditions but whether he’s in good enough form to go all the way again this year is open to question. Four of Medvedev’s five titles this season came in a golden spell early in the season and he’s not added another since Rome in May. Still, if he gets his big serve in the groove, like he did in London in 2020, he’ll be hard to stop, especially given he also has a very strong defensive game. Has been accused of lacking a ‘Plan B’ in the past but Plan A is often good enough.
Andrey Rublev
Best odds: Title – 20/1; Win group – 21/5; Qualify for SFs – 5/4
World ranking: 5
Race to Turin position: 5
2023 win-loss record: 56-23 (2 titles – Monte Carlo, Bastad)
2023 win-loss v top 10: 5-6
2023 indoor record: SF Paris, SF Vienna, L32 Rotterdam
Tournament record: 4-6 – SF 22, Gp 21, Gp 20
Recent form: SF Paris, SF Vienna, RU Shanghai, L16 Beijing
Record v group opponents:
v Alcaraz – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2023: 0-0
v Medvedev – overall: 2-7 (2-6 TL); indoor hard: 1-2 (1-1 TL); 2023: 0-2
v Zverev – overall: 3-5; indoor hard: 1-0; 2023: 3-0
Arrives in Turin in good form. Finished runner-up in Shanghai (having held championship point), where he showed he’s more than capable in slick conditions. Has since been to two semi-finals indoors, pushing eventual champ Djokovic to 7-5 in the decider in Paris. However, Rublev has had a tendency to lose close matches of late. You still wonder about his belief in himself sometimes, although things have improved on that front over the past 12 months. He got out of the group stage of this event for the first time last season, while this year he won his maiden Masters 1000 title (in Monte Carlo). Can contend if he finds something close to his best level.
Alex Zverev
Best odds: Title – 20/1; Win group – 23/4; Qualify for SFs – 13/10
World ranking: 8
Race to Turin position: 7
2023 win-loss record: 53-26 (2 titles – Hamburg, Chengdu)
2023 win-loss v top 10: 2-13
2023 indoor record: L16 Paris, QF Vienna, L16 Rotterdam
Tournament record: 12-8 – W 21, Gp 20, SF 19, W 18, Gp 17
Recent form: L16 Paris, QF Vienna, L32 Tokyo, L64 Shanghai, SF Beijing, W Chengdu
Record v group opponents:
v Alcaraz – overall: 3-3; indoor hard: 1-0; 2023: 0-2
v Medvedev – overall: 7-10; indoor hard: 3-4; 2023: 0-3
v Rublev – overall: 5-3; indoor hard: 0-1; 2023: 0-3
Zverev is a two-time champion of this tournament, winning it here in 2021 and in London five years ago. However, just making it in at all this year is an achievement given the terrible ankle injury the German suffered at Roland Garros last season. Making an impact again will be tough, based on Zverev’s season so far. He’s gone just 2-13 against the top 10 in 2023, while he’s 0-8 this season against his group opponents. Possesses a fine backhand and a strong first serve – a shot which could carry him a long way in these conditions. However, it’s not the most reliable and unless he is able to click that shot into top gear, you have to fear for Zverev in this company.
VERDICT
Not for the first time, it’s hard to look beyond NOVAK DJOKOVIC.
The greatest player of all time has lost only five matches in 2023 so it’s hard to see him losing two in the group stage which he’ll likely need to do if he’s to exit before the semi-finals.
And once at that stage, he usually lasers in on the trophy target – he’s gone 13-2 in semi-finals and finals this season.
His 13-3 record against top-10 players this year is easily the best in the field and, having won here before, he knows exactly what’s required.
Djokovic has two goals this week.
He says the first is the main one – one match win will be enough for him to secure the year-end number one spot, something that’s not good news for his opening opponent, Holger Rune.
The second is to win the title for a seventh time and thus wipe Roger Federer’s name from this chapter of the record book. The Serb talks regularly about his desire to set new records so expect this to be a major source of motivation.
Finally, Djokovic’s achievements give him a mental edge before any tournament has even started.
All of his opponents know the size of the challenge they face with this week arguably making it even harder for the Serb to be toppled – he could lose a match (maybe even two) and still emerge as the champion.
He’s easily the most likely winner and, at 11/8, gets my backing.
Alongside Djokovic in the Green Group, I expect JANNIK SINNER TO QUALIFY.
He’s been in considerably better form than both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rune and can reverse losing head-to-head records against them to progress in front of his home crowd.
As for the Red Group, it looks worth taking on Carlos Alcaraz.
The conditions won’t suit the Spaniard here, while he’s shown little since the US Open to suggest he’s ready to triumph against a field of this quality. Last time out in Paris, he was beaten by world number 45 Roman Safiullin.
Instead, ANDREY RUBLEV could be a spot of value at 20/1, or 5/4 to reach the semis, as he did 12 months ago.
The Russian is in good form, although a series of tight losses is admittedly a concern.
That is built into his price though.
Rublev has been striking the ball really well and his impressive Shanghai run is relevant given that event is also played in quick conditions.
With Zverev having struggled against the elite this season and Medvedev lacking consistency, Rublev has a good chance here.
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