Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks Game 3 odds, picks & predictions
The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in Monday’s Game 3 of the World Series. First pitch at Chase Bank Field in Phoenix is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Ted 1-1
Texas earned a 6-5, extra-inning comeback win in Game 1 Friday. Then, toting an .828 postseason OPS in Saturday, the Rangers were limited to just 4 hits in a 9-1 setback in Game 2.
The Diamondbacks, which took 3 of 4 from the Rangers in the regular season, filed crooked numbers in 4 innings Saturday, including the 7th, 8th and 9th, en route to their Game 2 rout. But aside from walking 10 batters in Game 1, its been Arizona pitching lifting the Snakes to key wins of late. Over the club’s last 4 postseason games, Arizona has registered a 2.41 ERA.
Rangers at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Scherzer was 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA in 27 regular-season starts with the Mets and Rangers. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 152 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K in 11-4 road ALCS Game 3 win vs. Houston Astros Oct. 23
- 2023 road stats (regular season): 8-4, 4.31 ERA in 85 2/3 IP across 15 starts
- ESPN’s match-up stats reveal that current Arizona hitters own an aggregate .566 OPS against him.
- Postseason: 7-8, 3.86 ERA in 140 IP (6 2/3 IP this season, allowing 7 R)
Pfaadt went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA across 18 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.41 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 96 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 7 K in 4-2 NLCS Game 7 win vs. Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
- 2023 home stats (regular season): 2-5, 6.46 ERA in 46 IP across 10 starts
- Faced the Rangers once during the regular season: allowed 7 R (including 4 HR) on 9 H in 4 2/3 at Texas May 3 in his Major League debut
- Postseason: 2.70 ERA in 16 2/3 IP (all this October)
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Rangers at Diamondbacks odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 6:49 a.m. ET.
Rangers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 6, Rangers 5
Scherzer was left off the roster for the ALDS, as he was still recovering from ar./shoulder strain. He pitched in Games 3 and 7 of the ALCS, allowing a combined 7 R on 6 2/3 IP. In those games, he was tagged with a lot of hard contact. Even assessing his 3.77 regular-season ERA, a .265 batting average on balls in play makes him a fade candidate here.
Other series match-up indicators — looking at performance vs. expected performance and seeking value margins — lean toward the Rangers. But with Arizona being 3-1 at home this October and 9-4 across its last 13 games in Phoenix, DIAMONDBACKS (-110) is worth some partial-unit action.
Juice added here, and that bloats the Arizona price too much. PASS.
Including the 1st 2 games of this series, the Over has cashed in 6 of the last 7 Arizona-Texas games. Texas results have hit the Over in 32 of the club’s last 51 games (+14.35 units, 25% ROI).
That’s the lean for Monday, with the hitting on display so far mixed with the Scherzer fade and two bullpens who figure as being too far over their skis with postseason ERAs of 3.04 (Arizona) and 3.90 (Texas).
But again the Scherzer lack of work, and even Pfaadt’s to an extent, add some gray area that regular-season betting isn’t usually clouded by. Go in with a half-measure or so on the OVER 9 (-110).
