Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds & Lines (7/6/23)
- Who: Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
- When: Thursday, July 6
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET / 4:10 p.m. PT
- Where: Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Rangers -135, Red Sox +115
- Runline: Rangers -1.5 (+115), Red Sox +1.5 (-135)
- Total: Over/Under 10 Runs (-110/-110)
Moneyline
The Texas Rangers (51-36) and Boston Red Sox (44-43) will face off in the series finale of a three-game set at Fenway Park on Thursday after splitting the first two games.
Thursday’s matchup features two pitchers that could help make this a low-scoring game. Texas will trot out 2023 All-Star Nathan Eovaldi, who is 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 112 1/3 innings over 17 starts this season. Boston goes with third-year arm Kutter Crawford, who is 3-4 with a 3.92 ERA this season.
The Rangers often win as the moneyline favorite, going 38-23 this season. By comparison, the Red Sox are 25-26 as a moneyline underdog.
Boston has a .500 record at home this season, going 22-22 at Fenway Park. On the other side, Texas is 24-18 on the road.
With a better overall record and a superior starting pitcher, the Rangers are deservedly favored tonight.
Runline
Looking at the spread, Texas is 52-35 against the runline this season. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are 45-42 against the runline.
The Rangers own MLB’s best run differential in MLB at +157 through 87 games this season, while Boston has a +11 run differential through 87 games.
Based on the math, Texas is expected to win this game by 1.7 runs and cover the spread. It also helps that the average margin of victory at Fenway Park this year is 3.5 runs.
The Rangers have the second-most wins in the American League for a reason. They’re one of the best teams in baseball and have been dominating opponents all year long, while the Red Sox are banged up and hovering around .500.
Eovaldi is also comfortable pitching at the oldest ballpark in the majors, where he’s 15-9 with a 4.12 ERA in 262 career innings.
As the better team with the superior starting pitcher, Texas is worth trusting on the runline here.
Total
Looking at the Over/Under, both teams have been trending towards the Under lately. The Under is 4-0-2 in the Rangers’ last six road games and 4-0 in Boston’s last four home games.
There were fewer than 10 runs scored in each of the first two games of this series, with eight total runs on Tuesday and six on Wednesday.
Look for that trend to continue here with Eovaldi and Crawford on the mound. Eovaldi pitched for the Red Sox from 2018-2022, so he should be able to exploit his teammates’ weaknesses and won’t be intimidated by the Boston fans. Meanwhile, Crawford has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last seven starts.
Accordingly, we expect fewer than 10 total runs to be scored in this game and recommend backing the Under.
