Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Rangers are sending Nathan Eovaldi to the mound for the series finale against his former club. With the All-Star having the best season of his career, our MLB betting picks expect Texas to handle business.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox wrap up a three-game series at Fenway Park on Thursday night.
These teams have split the first two games in this series and the Rangers are expected to take this one with MLB odds opening with them as -140 road favorites.
The Rangers will try to extend their lead atop the AL West while the Red Sox will look to enter the All-Star break with some momentum. I break down the matchup in my Rangers vs. Red Sox MLB betting picks below.
Rangers vs Red Sox odds
Rangers vs Red Sox predictions
The Texas Rangers are giving the ball to Nathan Eovaldi who returns to Fenway to face his former team. Eovaldi was just named to the All-Star game and has been outstanding for Texas, going 10-3 in 17 starts with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.
The Boston Red Sox are countering with sophomore Kutter Crawford, a guy who's been used in a hybrid starter/reliever role over the last two years. Crawford has been more effective pitching out of the bullpen and he has a 5.30 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an OBA of .282 in eight starts this season.
The Rangers also have a distinct advantage at the dish where they rank second in the majors with an OPS of .801. The Red Sox are eighth in OPS (.754) with that number dropping to .728 since the start of June.
The BoSox have been doing a good job of making contact but they haven't been hitting with much power. They're 15th in the majors in isolated power, 16th in hard-hit rate, and 17th in average exit velocity. Meanwhile, the Rangers are inside the Top 5 in each of those categories.
The Rangers have a significantly better starter pitching in a familiar venue and also have a lineup that's been producing at a higher level. I'm not going to overthink this one.
My best bet: Rangers -1.5 (+119 at SportsInteraction)
Rangers vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Rangers -1.5 (+115)
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (-145)
Nathan Eovaldi Over 17.5 outs (-150)
Seager clubbed 33 home runs last season but had a .245 batting average and was still a disappointment considering the $325 million contract he'd been given. He missed 31 games earlier this season but has been worth every penny since returning to the lineup.
The infielder is slashing .355/.418/.605 and has raised his slugging percentage to .635 since the start of June. The left-handed Seager will also enjoy the platoon advantage against Crawford. Although Fenway can suppress homers for lefties, the larger right field area is very beneficial for hitters like Seager who hit for a high average and crush doubles.
Eovaldi has been a workhorse for the Rangers and has logged at least 18 outs in 12 of his last 14 starts. He's averaging 20.7 outs per game during that span and with the Rangers bullpen looking shaky, Bruce Bochy will want to keep him in as long as possible.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Rangers vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The line opened with the Rangers at -140 and the Over/Under at 10 and both have stayed relatively steady at most books.
The Rangers are just 2-5 in their last seven games but they still have the second-best record in the AL at 51-36. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five and despite being one game above .500, they sit at the bottom of the stacked AL East.
The Rangers are 10-7 in Eovaldi's 17 starts this season while the BoSox are 3-5 in Crawford's eight starts.
Texas has cashed the Over in 57% of their games this season, although this total is surprisingly high for a game in which Eovaldi is on the hill. In his previous 13 starts, there hasn't been a single total set above 8.5.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Under is 4-0-2 in the Rangers' last six games on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Red Sox
Rangers vs Red Sox game info
Starting pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi (10-3, 2.64 ERA): Eovaldi was Boston's best hurler for the last few years but this has easily been the best season of his career. Although some regression is likely for the veteran, his expected ERA of 3.27 indicates that he won't be dropping off much. He's fresh off a start against the Astros where he pitched seven shutout innings and allowed just two hits.
Kutter Crawford (3-4 3.92 ERA): Crawford has impressive analytics with an average exit velocity that sits in the Top 20th percentile and an expected ERA of 3.34. However, those numbers are a tad inflated by his solid appearances out of the bullpen and he often finds himself in trouble when working as a starter. The 27-year-old is coming off a solid outing where he limited the Blue Jays to three hits (albeit two of those being dingers) across 5 2/3 innings.
