The Cincinnati Reds Will Exceed Expectations in 2023
2022, a season in which most Cincinnati Reds fans would like to forget. After opening the season 3-22, it was evident that the season was not going to be completely fantastic. In the end, they finished 62-100, tied for last in the National League Central with the Pittsburgh Pirates. There was a lot that went into the 2022 outcome for the Reds, but 2023 is a new season, one that will provide a better outcome than many expect.
Starting with the team getting healthier. Over last season, catcher Tyler Stephenson was limited to only 50 games while dealing with injuries. When he did play, he provided a major boost to the lineup with his slash line of .319/.372/.482. When fielding, he had 385 putouts on 401 chances. With his versatility, it has already been stated that Stephenson will also see time at first base, and designated hitter, which is why the team signed Luke Maile and Curt Casali. Maile (.221/.301/.326), and Casali (.125/.300/.225) will provide better consistency overall outside of Stephenson at catcher than Austin Romine (.147/.173/.263) and Aramis Garcia (.213/.248/.259) did in 2022.
Then there was Jonathan India, who had a major down year. After his Rookie of the Year performance in 2021, he looked nothing like that in 2022. While India battled rough injuries himself, when he did play he only hit 10 home runs, had 41 runs batted in, and a slash line of .249/.327/.378 over 103 games played. When you compare that to his 2021 stats where he had 21 home runs, 69 runs batted in, and a slash line of .269/.376/.459 over 150 games and the step back is a bit evident. That 2022 season won’t become the new normal for India, though. Through spring training so far, he looks back to normal, slashing a .308/.413/.462 with four stolen bases, eight runs batted in, and one home run over 52 at bats. If this small sample size so far is any indication, India is in line for a massive bounce back season.
This is also the second season for Jake Fraley after being acquired when the team traded Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Seattle Mariners for him. Fraley over 68 games played in 2022, ended up with 12 home runs, 28 runs batted in, and a slash line of .259/.344/.468 and in the field had 82 putouts over 85 chances with only two errors. With a season under him, and a full offseason with the team to prepare, Fraley should come into 2023 ready to make a larger impact.
This is all with veteran experience in the lineup with Joey Votto, when healthy, and Wil Myers, along with newcomer Spencer Steer to provide a power boost to this team’s offense in 2023. This is a major necessity for an offense that was ranked 26th with a .676 OPS and 21st with a .235 team average.
Then there is the increased experience from the pitching rotation that will help play a large factor. The young three in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft are entering their second season. Greene showed massive potential in his first season, throwing a 4.44 ERA, gave up 23 home runs, and showcased his 99 mile per hour fastball over 125.2 innings. What was even more impressive is over the final 35.1 innings he played as the season progressed, he had an ERA of 1.02, and only allowed one home run, showing that the play in the majors was starting to come to him. Lodolo threw for 103.1 innings to end up with a 3.66 ERA, and like Greene, when you look at the season Lodolo had closer, he did better in the second half with a 2.92 ERA. Then there was Ashcraft as well, who had success with a 4.89 ERA. The thing with Ashcraft was his lack of strikeouts due to him being a frequent groundball pitcher in 2022, spring training has started to show his change as he finished with 10 strikeouts, one hit allowed, zero runs, and zero walks over six innings.
With better health, more power on offense, and more experience at the top of the pitching rotation, the chances of the Reds starting off the season again 3-22 is very slim. With a better projected start, the Reds have the team to start off on a better note this season and get well above their win total of 65.5. This is still a young team, but one full of potential that should not be overlooked in 2023.
Odds Presented by the Betfred Sportsbook App
Cincinnati Reds 2023 Regular Season Win Total
Over 65.5: -120
Under 65.5: +100
Bet: Over 65.5
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