Twins-Reds prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 18

The Minnesota Twins (79-71) take on the Cincinnati Reds (78-73) in the first game of a three-game series on Monday, September 18. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park. Joe Ryan (10-9, 4.20 ERA) will take the mound for the Twins, while rookie Connor Phillips (0-0. 8.31 ERA) will pitch for the Reds. Minnesota is trying to hold onto their seven-game AL Central lead, while Cincy looks to close the seven-game gap in the NL Central — and trail the Cubs and Marlins by a half-game for the final NL Wild Card spot.

The Twins are -148 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Reds coming in at +124. The run total is set at 9.5.

Twins-Reds picks: Monday, September 18

Injury report

Reds

Day to day: C Luke Maile (hand)
Out: SP Graham Ashcraft (toe), RP Tejay Antone (elbow), C Curt Casali (foot), SS Matt McLain (oblique), 2B Kevin Newman (oblique), OF Stuart Fairchild (Covid), LHP Alex Young (illness)

Twins

Out: DH/OF Byron Buxton (hamstring), OF Michael Taylor (hamstring), 1B/OF Joey Gallo (foot)

Starting pitchers

Joe Ryan vs. Connor Phillips

Ryan let up two earned runs and recorded seven strikeouts in 4.2 innings in his latest start against the Rays. In his most recent road start, he allowed two earned runs in four innings against the Guardians, as he continues to struggle with the home run ball in the second half.

Phillips has made his first two MLB starts this season after a promising line in Triple-A. The results in the Majors haven’t been as promising, however: let up five earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Mariners, and allowed three earned runs in four innings against the Tigers. He has recorded 10 strikeouts.

Over/Under pick

Phillips has been letting up plenty of runs in his few starts, and the Reds bullpen has not been much better in their relief efforts on the mound. The Twins have been batting well this week, grabbed 10 runs in two of their last four games.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

The Twins won two of four games in their latest series against the White Sox, and the Reds won two of three over the Mets. I like the Twins to win here — the Reds have been very up and down over the last few weeks, and their pitching continues to be a major weakness in their game. The Twins are missing some important pieces of their lineup, but as they attempt to clinch their division, they’re going to kick things into high gear.