2023 Tour Championship odds, picks, field, predictions: Golf expert fading Scottie Scheffler at East Lake

Rory McIlroy can add to his record number of FedEx Cup titles when he tees off in the 2023 Tour Championship beginning Thursday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. The 34-year-old McIlroy has won the FedEx Cup a record three times, one more than Tiger Woods. This week, McIlroy also can become the first player to win back-to-back FedEx Cup titles since the FedEx Cup Playoffs began in 2007. 

McIlroy, who will start the Tour Championship three shots behind leader Scottie Scheffler, is the +330 second choice in the latest Tour Championship odds. Scheffler is the +130 favorite in the 2023 Tour Championship field. Viktor Hovland (+450), Jon Rahm (+850) and Patrick Cantlay (+1800) round out the top five choices on the PGA odds board. Before locking in any 2023 Tour Championship picks, make sure you see the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from golf betting and fantasy expert Sia Nejad.

Nejad specializes in betting and DFS in golf, among other sports. He's had incredible success in the outright and first-round leader markets and in betting head-to-head matchups. He also has been on fire on head-to-head matchups since the Charles Schwab Challenge, going 24-15-1 and returning 6.59 units over that span. That's a $659 profit for $100 bettors in the past 13 weeks.

Nejad also nailed 75-1 longshot Wyndham Clark as the outright winner at the Wells Fargo Championship. In 2023, SportsLine debuted "The Early Wedge," and in the first three months of the show, he hit two first-round leaders and three outright winners. Nejad also had a winning head-to-head record in seven of nine weeks. He was up more than 70 units over that three-month span.

Now, Nejad has focused his attention on the 2023 Tour Championship field and has locked in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. See who they are at SportsLine.

Top 2023 Tour Championship expert picks

One surprise: Nejad is completely fading Scottie Scheffler, even though he is the +130 favorite to win with starting strokes and starts with a two-shot lead. The 27-year-old Texan is on a remarkable run, having made the cut in 24 straight tournaments – a stretch that dates back to last year's BMW Championship. He also has finished in the top 12 in 20 of 22 tournaments this season.

Scheffler starts the Tour Championship with a two-shot lead over Hovland, but Nejad believes that may work against Scheffler. Nejad thinks that Scheffler being on top will apply even more pressure on his putter, which has been the only weak facet of his game all season. "I'm not comfortable with his short odds relative to those of the rest of the field," Nejad told SportsLine. See all his picks at SportsLine. 

However, Nejad is high on the chances of Sam Burns, who is +4500 to win without starting strokes. Ranked No. 22 in the world, Burns has one win and five top 10s in 25 starts this season. He is coming off a 15th at the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields.

Burns will start the Tour Championship 10 strokes behind the leader, Scheffler, and Nejad believes that will force Burns to be aggressive and fire at pins with nothing to lose. "His game is trending in the right direction across a myriad of metrics, including greens in regulation and approach play, and we know he's the type of player who can get hot at any given moment," Nejad told SportsLine. See whom else to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 Tour Championship picks

Nejad has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Tour Championship and is backing several longshots, including one who is priced higher than 50-1. This player "continues to play well" and is a longshot who could surprise. You can see Nejad's PGA Tour picks only at SportsLine.

So which players should you target or avoid for the 2023 Tour Championship, and which player in the Tour Championship 2023 field could bring a huge payday at more than 50-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Sia Nejad's top picks for Tour Championship 2023, all from the expert who was up more than 70 units on his recent golf picks.

2023 Tour Championship starting score odds, field

Scottie Scheffler (-10) +140Rory McIlroy (-7) +330Viktor Hovland (-8) +500Jon Rahm (-6) +800Patrick Cantlay (-4) +1600Max Homa (-4) +2800Xander Schauffele (-3) +3000Matt Fitzpatrick (-4) +4000Lucas Glover (-5) +4000Wyndham Clark (-4) +4500Tommy Fleetwood (-3) +4500Brian Harman (-4) +4500Rickie Fowler (-3) +7000Russell Henley (-3) +7500Tom Kim (-2) +11000Sungjae Im (-2) +11000Tony Finau (-2) +13000Keegan Bradley (-3) +13000Corey Conners (-2) +13000Colin Morikawa (-1) +13000Tyrrell Hatton (E) +15000Si Woo Kim (-2) +18000Jordan Spieth (E) +18000Jason Day (-1) +25000Sam Burns (E) +30000Taylor Moore (-1) +40000Sepp Straka (E) +50000Emiliano Grillo (E) +50000Adam Schenk (-1) +50000