2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds, picks: Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland among best bets

The Athletic

01 January 0001

The 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finally has a field that this picturesque venue deserves. The competition had been trending in the wrong direction for several years, with many top players deciding to skip the trip to Pebble Beach. But in 2024, the tournament has become a signature event featuring a $20 million purse with a limited field and no cut. Seventeen of the top 20 players in the world will be playing for that purse this week.

The format of the tournament has some changes as well. The 80 players in the field will play Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course on Thursday and Friday, alternating between each course alongside amateurs and celebrities. The amateurs and celebrities will be done after their rounds on Friday, and the professionals in the field will then play Pebble Beach Golf Links on Saturday and Sunday.

With small greens of West Coast poa annua and tricky bunkering, Pebble Beach Golf Links rewards players who are in control of their approach shots as well as players who have excellent hands around the greens. Those small greens may look even smaller if the wind blows as forcefully as the weather report predicts. Rain is in the forecast from Wednesday until Friday night. The best weather looks to be on Saturday, with clear skies and lighter winds. Sunday’s forecast calls for rain, and I have seen reports of up to 30 mph winds.

Justin Rose is the defending champion, and he’ll be up against several other winners in the field, including Nick Taylor (2020), Jordan Spieth (2017), and Viktor Hovland (2018 U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach Golf Links).

Our model for this tournament favors strokes gained on approach, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained from 150 to 100 yards on approach, Par 5 scoring, and strokes gained on poa annua greens.

Betting slip

Viktor Hovland +1200 won the U.S. Amateur here in 2018 and then followed that up by being the low amateur at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach as well. (The tournament was won by Gary Woodland.) Hovland has built on that success by winning consistently on the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. He finished the fall season with a fifth-place finish at the BMW PGA Championship and a T2 at the DP World Tour Championship. He started the 2024 year a little slow with his irons at The Sentry, but I’m not too concerned with that. He has made great strides over the last year in his around-the-green game, as well as with his bunker play.

Jordan Spieth +1800 won here in 2017, finished third in 2021 and second in 2022. The field may be stronger, but the conditions look to be favorable for a Texan this week. Spieth looks like he has bounced back after a rough Ryder Cup. He finished sixth at the Hero and third at The Sentry. He gained over 10 strokes combined over those two tournaments in strokes gained in the short game. He also gained 1.7 or more strokes on approach in each of those tournaments.

Tommy Fleetwood +4000 is coming into this tournament in fine form. He won the Dubai Invitational and followed that up with a solid T14 at the Dubai Desert Classic. It was nice to see him bounce back after really struggling at The Sentry. Fleetwood pops in my model, so it’s tough to ignore him even if he hasn’t won in North America yet.

J.T. Poston +5000 keeps showing up near the top in every model I come up with. I have been betting on Poston early and often to start the year, and he has contended, which has helped me make some money in spots. He gained 2.7 or more strokes in each of his last two tournaments. He has gained over 14 strokes combined in strokes gained in the short game over his last three tournaments.

Beau Hossler +7000 has been building up momentum since the fall. He has three top-seven finishes in his last five tournaments. He has gained 2.9 strokes or more on approach in two out of his last three tournaments. He finished with an eagle at the Farmers Insurance Open to help him climb the leaderboard. He finished third here in 2022 and 11th last year.

DFS Plays

Viktor Hovland $10,200 See above.

Xander Schauffele $10,000 has made a habit of skipping Pebble Beach over the years, but he did finish T3 here at the U.S. Open in 2019. Schauffele has started his 2024 campaign solid with three straight top-10 finishes. His putter is the only thing holding him back right now, as he lost almost three whole strokes putting at the Farmers Insurance Open. But he gained over 9.3 strokes from tee to green, which can’t be overlooked.

Justin Thomas $9,600 has made a habit out of skipping Pebble Beach over the years and he missed the cut at the 2019 U.S. Open here. Thomas does have a lot going for him this week, even if it isn’t course history. He has four straight top-five finishes worldwide. He is the best player in the field in strokes gained around the green. When Thomas is at his best, he is gaining strokes on approach at a high rate. He has gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in each of his last two tournaments.

Jordan Spieth $9,400 See above.

Max Homa $9,200 has been incredibly consistent over the last seven months. He hasn’t finished outside the top 14 in any tournament since the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July 2023. He made a charge early on Sunday at the Farmers Insurance Open before settling for a T13 finish. I’m finding it very hard to skip over Homa in cash games, and I like him along with Spieth in GPP contests.

Tommy Fleetwood $8,600 See above.

Hideki Matsuyama $8,300 finished T21 at the 2019 U.S. Open, so he has some experience here. Matsuyama has been inconsistent for a while on the PGA Tour. He struggled with some injuries that ended up affecting his swing. The one thing he has had consistently over that time is a great touch around the greens. His around-the-green game bumps his profile up in my models. He gained across the board in a nice T13 finish last week at the Farmers Insurance Open before his putter let him down.

Matt Fitzpatrick $8,200 finished T12 here at the 2019 U.S. Open and has a sixth-place finish in 2022. His finishes beyond those at Pebble Beach are pretty poor. There is some risk when it comes to playing Fitzpatrick early in the year, but this course should suit his game. His win at Harbour Town, which is a good course comparison, can’t be ignored.

J.T. Poston $7,900 See above.

Beau Hossler $7,800 See above.

Denny McCarthy $7,500 finished 12th in 2022 and fourth in 2023 here. McCarthy has been losing a ton of strokes off the tee in the last few months. He doesn’t have to worry about that here. He is excellent around the greens and is one of the best putters on tour.

Adam Hadwin $7,300 has two top-18 finishes here in the last five years and is coming off of a sixth-place finish at The American Express. Hadwin has gained on approach in three out of his last four tournaments, and he has gained around the green in all four of those tournaments.

Eric Cole $7,300 struggled in his last round at The American Express, and he followed that up with a missed cut at the Farmers. I’m willing to cut him a break and go back to him at this lower price. He finished 15th here last year, and his game looks to be the ideal mix for this course. His driver shouldn’t hurt him here, and his around-the-green game can help him.

Kevin Yu $7,200 was T7 here last year and is on a nice little run here with a T3 and a T6 in his last two tournaments. I love playing him when he’s in the low 6K range, but I think we have to sprinkle him in some GPP lineups, even with his price hike.

Matthieu Pavon $7,100 is coming off of his first PGA Tour win, where he outlasted Stephan Jäger and Nicolai Højgaard. I had been writing him up the last few weeks because of his results on the DP World Tour and how he was underpriced and a value in the betting world because of it. I’m sticking with him again this week as his price didn’t jump all that much even after winning. He gained over 4.5 strokes on approach in two out of his last three tournaments and has continued to be red hot with the putter.

Brendon Todd $7,000 has gained 1.8 or more strokes on approach in each of his last four measured events. He has gained strokes around the green in every tournament since the Open Championship in July. He finished 16th here in 2022 and second in 2023. I’m having a hard time not grabbing him early and often when I’m building lineups.

Taylor Montgomery $6,800 has made seven straight cuts with four top-16 finishes among those. He has an excellent short game that includes a putter that can regularly gain over five strokes in a tournament. He has been better on approach lately, gaining over seven strokes on approach at the Sony Open.

Ben Griffin $6,400 missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, but I’m willing to forgive him for that with his ability to go low at any time. His putter can get scorching hot, and it showed in the weeks leading up to the Farmers, where he gained over 20 strokes on the green combined over his previous three tournaments.

Maverick McNealy $6,200 is a horse for the course that might be a little hard to trust this week. McNealy is coming back from an injury that hampered his upward trajectory on the PGA Tour. He is local to the area, so he has a ton of course knowledge. He has finished fifth and second here in the last four years. If his ownership is too high, I would much rather take Brandon Wu $6,300 or Mark Hubbard $6,300 for some low-cost ball-striking upside.