Titans vs. Browns betting odds, props, picks: Cleveland Favored Despite Losing Nick Chubb

The Sporting News

22 September 2023

Titans vs. Browns betting odds, props, picks: Cleveland Favored Despite Losing Nick Chubb

When the Tennessee Titans face the host Cleveland Browns in their Week 3 AFC showdown on Sunday afternoon, there could be new looks to both teams' attacks thanks to injuries to a pair of the NFL's most dynamic running backs.

Titans vs. Browns betting odds, props, and picks

The Browns, a squad that entered Week 3 with the most rushing yards, most attempts, and highest average per carry, will be without RB Nick Chubb, who suffered a career-threatening knee injury Monday night in Cleveland's 26-22 loss at Pittsburgh.

Chubb was third in the league in 2022 with 1,525 ground yards, his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season.

And in Tennessee, Derrick Henry, a two-time rushing champion, is dealing with turf toe, a far less severe -- but extremely painful -- injury that occurred during last week's 27-24 overtime victory over the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. He played throughout, but this week has been limited in drills.

Last season, Henry was second on the rushing chart with 1,538 yards.

Anyway, Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson likely will have to shoulder more of the offensive load for his team. And that could be the same for Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill if Henry isn't his powerhouse self or sits out.

Titans vs. Browns: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total & Division Futures

Despite missing Chubb, the Browns, whose 1-1 record ties for their best two-game start since being reborn in 1999, are listed as a favorite of 3 to 3.5 points over the Titans (1-1). The over/under total is 39 to 39.5. In May, the Westgate SuperBook had Cleveland as a 4.5-point choice with an elevated O/U of 44.5.

On the moneyline, Cleveland is available at -164; Tennessee at +160.

In their last meeting in 2020, the visiting Browns won 41-35 as a 5-point underdog. Tannehill had 389 passing yards, his highest total in the past four years.

About ATS records, the Titans have fared much better than the Browns since 2019. Counting their 2-0 mark this year, they are 36-31-1 (.537). Cleveland is 27-40-1 against the line in that span.

As for the over/under total, there have been five previous games this year with a sub-40 number. The score has gone over in three, including last week's Cleveland-Pittsburgh game. But their score was inflated by two defensive TDs.

On the NFL division futures boards, Cleveland is listed as a +370 choice to win the AFC North, shorter than its +400 number just before the season commenced. The Titans are at +260 to win the AFC South. A week ago, that number was +400.

Titans vs. Browns Key Injuries

Chubb, of course, is the major missing piece for the Browns, who have elevated Jerome Ford to the alpha RB role. They also just added fleet Kareem Hunt, the league rushing champ while with Kansas City in 2017, who had been with Cleveland from 2019 through 2022 but not re-signed in the offseason.

Also, WR Amari Cooper, the team's leading receiver last week with seven catches for 90 yards, was limited in drills Thursday with groin and shoulder issues. He's listed as questionable. He also was iffy before last week's game.

Along the offensive line, the team already was without two-time All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin (IR, knee). Now left tackle Jedrick Wills is dealing with an MRI sprain and is listed as questionable.

On defense, RDE Za'Darius Smith (questionable) has been limited by an ankle injury. Teammates also listed as questionable are LBs Anthony Walker (pec) and Sione Takitaki (shoulder) and cornerback Greg Newsome (elbow).

For the Titans, in addition to Henry, WR DeAndre Hopkins continues to deal with an ankle issue. He's had 11 catches for 105 yards through two weeks, both team bests. Rookie OLG Pete Skoronski remains out after having an appendectomy. He was the 11th overall pick in the 2023 draft.

And like the Browns, there are a host of defenders who are questionable and were limited in drills: Nose tackle Teair Tart (knee), edge rusher Denico Autry (foot), LB Harold Landry (hamstring) and safety Amani Hooker (concussion).

Titans vs. Browns Betting Trends

Cleveland will be working at a disadvantage, having just played Monday night. Since the beginning of last season, teams on short rest off a MNF game and playing a team with normal rest (or more) have gone 14-18 ATS (.438).

On the other hand, the Browns will be in a comfort zone of sorts in opening four weeks without leaving home -- three games wrapped around a Week 5 bye.

But that scenario didn't play out well for the Browns in 2020 when they had a similar four-game stretch that started with a 16-6 upset loss to the Oakland Raiders as a 2.5-point favorite.

Also, over the past three seasons, teams that yielded two return scores on special teams and by the defense and didn't have one of their own have rebounded their next game to go 5-2 ATS.

Titans vs. Browns Props

Here are some other interesting ways to bet on Sunday's game:

Alternate Point Spreads (DraftKings)

Titans -9.5: +491

Browns +9.5: -850

Titans -6.5: +327

Browns +6.5: -486

Titans -3.5: +218

Browns +3.5: -299

Titans +6.5: -187

Browns -6.5: +143

Titans +9.5: -287

Browns -9.5: +210

Titans +12.5: -439

Browns -12.5: +301

Titans +15.5: -680

Browns -15.5: +422

Rushing Yards for Browns' Jerome Ford (PointsBet)

25+ Yards: -400

50+ Yards: +105

75+ Yards: +280

100+ Yards: +700

Yards Passing (PointsBet)

Browns' Deshaun Watson 300+: +425

Titans' Ryan Tannehill 300+: +1100

Titans vs. Browns Analysis & Picks

Considering the injury situations for the clubs, this shapes up as a defensive battle,

Somewhat incredibly, the Browns have held both their foes to fewer than 10 first downs -- only six to Cincinnati in a season-opening 24-3 victory and then nine last week to Pittsburgh. No other defense has done that even once this year.

On top of that, enemy passers have completed only 46.8 percent of their throws, ranking Cleveland easily tops in that category. And that will make it extra tough for Tannehill, who was sacked five times last week on only 29 drop-backs and ranks as the 25th-most accurate passer.

And as for Henry, turf toe injuries typically are very paintful and restrict a player's ability to make sharp cuts. He'll likely play, but probably won't be his usual self.

In Cleveland, reports indicate the Browns are not going to change their offensive identity and will stick with the ground game.

Ford had 106 yards last week, including a 69-yard burst. And if Hunt sees much action, he no doubt will keep the defense on high alert because of his speed. He already should know the playbook and will be extra hungry to prove he's still a viable RB.

Now, if Watson, the 31st-most accurate passer in the league, can come halfway close to performing like he did for Houston in 2020, when he was tops in the league, the Browns should thrive.

Prediction: Browns moneyline and the under.