Today's DFS Prop Picks (Sunday 5/21/23)

Welcome to our PrizePicks NBA DFS prop picks for Sunday, May 21st, 2023. The 2022-2023 NBA season is rolling along, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.

PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back. At PrizePicks, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections, and the guys at PrizePicks have worked hard to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests

PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as FantasyScore, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game.

The second game is known as SingleStat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total.

You can mix and match players from different types of games in your entry, or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option.

NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today

Jayson Tatum OVER 41 Minutes Played

I'll start the day off with Jayson Tatum's minutes played prop. Tatum has tied or exceeded this projection in four of his last five games, averaging 41.6 minutes played during that span.

The Boston Celtics are currently down 0-2 after Miami stole both games in the Garden. Boston desperately needs to take this game to prevent going down 0-3, something no team has ever overcome. The Celtics will depend heavily on their star Tatum. This game should stay close, with only a 3.5-point spread, and I expect Tatum to see 42-plus minutes tonight.

Other apps have Tatum listed at 41.5, eliminating the safer option of a tie at 41. We have a half-point margin at 41, giving us a much safer play. The only way I see this missing is if there is somehow some type of blowout, which is highly unlikely.

Marcus Smart OVER 27.5 Fantasy Score

Next, I'll be looking at Marcus Smart's fantasy score prop. Smart has exceeded this projection in two of his last five games, averaging 27.1 fantasy points during that stretch.

Smart is coming off a poor game-two performance, finishing with a fantasy score of just 13.3. Smart should look to bounce back in a game of true desperation, where he can possibly see an increased workload. I expect the Heat to continue to play some zone defense and create open looks for Smart. This is a must-win game for Boston and they will give their starters plenty of playing time, probably even an above-average workload.

The books have Smart listed at -130 odds to go over his PRA projection of 21.5, so to secure this over, we just need Smart to snag a steal or two, which is definitely within his capabilities, being the elite defender he is.

Jimmy Butler OVER 5.5 Assists

I'll finish things off with Jimmy Butler's assists prop. Butler has exceeded this projection in four of his last five games, averaging 7.2 assists during that span.

Butler has been the most dominating player thus far in this year's playoffs, currently leading the Heat over the Celtics with a 2-0 lead. So far this series, Butler has been averaging 8.5 potential assists and 6.5 actual assists, making the 5.5 line seem slightly low.

The books like Butler to go over 5.5 assists with -130 odds, giving us a nice lean here on the over. I expect the Celtics to attempt to slow down Butler, potentially with double teams, which could lead to more assists opportunity.

Other Recommendations:

• Caleb Martin OVER 21.5 Fantasy Score
• Jayson Tatum OVER 10 Rebounds/41 PR
• Kyle Lowry OVER 16.5 PRA

Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX

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