Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

The Baltimore Orioles (28-16) and Toronto Blue Jays (25-19) will square off Friday in the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch from Rogers Centre is at 7:07 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: 1st meeting

The Orioles come into this game after splitting a 4-game series with the Los Angeles Angels from Monday-Thursday. Baltimore has won 6 of its last 9 games and has maintained its spot in 2nd in the AL East, 3.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles have scored the 9th-most runs in baseball (220).

The Jays are sitting in 3rd in the AL East, 6.5 games back, but after dropping 3 of 4 to the New York Yankees to start the week are in danger of falling into 4th. Their lineup has been disappointing, scoring 204 runs in 44 games (13th) but the pitching staff is holding steady with a 3.93 ERA (10th).

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Gibson (4-3, 4.67 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 52 IP.

• Has lost 3 straight starts after going 4-0 over his first 6 outings
• Has allowed 12 runs in his last 17 2/3 innings, bringing his ERA up from 3.93 to 4.67.

Kikuchi (5-0, 3.89 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 41 2/3 IP.

• Was roughed up for 4 earned runs on 9 hits — 3 home runs — over 4 innings against the Atlanta Braves Sunday
• Has given up 1 or 0 earned runs in 5 of his 8 starts but has allowed 4-plus runs in his other 3 turns

Orioles at Blue Jays odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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Orioles at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Orioles 3

Kikuchi struggled in his last outing, but he hasn’t had back-to-back poor starts this season and I expect him to rebound nicely against the Orioles. Baltimore is just 2-3 in its last 5 games.

The Blue Jays are 7-1 in Kikuchi’s 8 starts this season, with their only loss being a 7-6 defeat to the Boston Red Sox. BET BLUE JAYS (-150).

The Blue Jays have won 5 games by at least 2 runs when Kikuchi has been on the mound, covering the run line in each of those contests. The Orioles have given Gibson absolutely no run support in his recent starts, getting shut out in each of his last 3 outings.

BET BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+125) to cover and win by at least 2 runs.

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Between the Orioles’ poor run support for Gibson and Kikuchi’s 5 starts of 1 or fewer runs allowed this season, I don’t expect this to be a terribly high-scoring game at Rogers Centre. The total has gone Under in each of Gibson’s last 3 starts, and it’s also gone Under in each of the Blue Jays’ last 2 games.

BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).

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