Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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04 March 2024

Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Despite a two-game winning streak, the Trail Blazers have had a season to forget at just 17-42. With a laundry list of injuries to deal with, our NBA betting picks expect the offense to fall short vs. a defensively sound Timberwolves side.

The Minnesota Timberwolves had no trouble in a two-game series against the Portland Trail Blazers just before the All-Star Break, but since then, Minnesota’s life has been rather miserable, going 3-3 outright and 1-5 against the spread.

Those two losses came in the midst of a nine-game losing streak for Portland, a streak halted by winning two games in Memphis over the weekend. But how much credence should be given to beating these Grizzlies?

Do not overreact to the Blazers’ glimmer of success. They have not scored triple digits in regulation in back-to-back games in nearly a month. Doubting Portland’s offense is a valid approach no matter the opponent, but certainly tonight against the best defense in the NBA.

Let’s trust Minnesota’s strength in our free NBA picks and predictions as we break down the NBA odds and preview Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves on March 4.

Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves odds

Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves have an offensive problem. It knows this. Scoring only 58 points after the first quarter in Sunday afternoon’s loss to the Clippers was a new low, but it was also one coming after a packed personal week for the Timberwolves.

Karl-Anthony Towns missed a game following the death of a high school teammate. Anthony Edwards missed a half to be at the hospital for the birth of his first child. The emotions in the Minnesota locker room may be all over the place right now, and that energy catching up on Sunday was only human. Playing Sunday afternoon after going to overtime on Friday night was already a difficult turnaround without the outside circumstances.

Adding a third game in four days will further that fatigue.

The Timberwolves have played at the No. 23 pace in the NBA since Feb. 1, of course, also holding the No. 1 defensive rating in that stretch.

Pertinent to tonight, the Portland Trail Blazers have played at the No. 29 pace in the NBA since Feb. 1, a dragging pace that emphasizes the No. 28 offensive rating in the same stretch.

Minnesota will relish a slower game tonight. It needs one. Portland’s best hope would be trying to run tonight, but that is simply not in its skillset.

As long as the Blazers are not in transition, the Timberwolves' defense should control the game, as it usually does. Minnesota has held 12 of its last 19 opponents below their team totals, a rate lessened by a couple of blowouts creating garbage-time buckets, like at Portland on Feb. 13.

Tonight may be played at such a slow rate that even a sloppy fourth quarter will not get the Blazers over the hump. This team total may seem egregiously low, but recognize part of the reasoning is both these teams are likely to play slow when fresh, and neither one is remotely fresh right now, each on its third game in four nights.

My best bet: Trail Blazers team total Under 97.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Trail Blazers team total Under 97.5

Timberwolves first-half -8.5

Timberwolves second-half team total Under 54.5

Putting faith in Minnesota’s defense while doubting Portland’s offense is a tried and trusted strategy this season. Both units have played to those expectations far more often than not.

That thought informs some of betting the Timberwolves to cover the first-half spread, too. If they can start the night with some focus, a modest first-half total should still cover this 8.5-point spread. With Portland sitting Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Malcolm Brogdon, and probably Jerami Grant, Minnesota can be inconsistent offensively and still take a healthy lead.

Then fatigue may show up. The Timberwolves are at a rest disadvantage tonight, a back-to-back compared to the Blazers last playing on Saturday night. When that fatigue shows up, Minnesota’s offense will unravel. It has become nearly as much a Timberwolves’ trademark as solid defense has been.

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Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

After Minnesota fell to Los Angeles on Sunday, this spread opened with the Timberwolves favored by 13.5. It quickly jumped up to -14, and it has not moved since.

While that is a hefty number of points, it is nearly matched by the Blazers’ injury report, which also includes Deandre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle as questionable.

The total hit the market at a mispriced 214.5 before falling to 212 on Sunday and then to 210 on Monday morning. This is the fifth game in seven nights for Minnesota. With its offense already struggling, there may be a want to simply end this game, no need to play aggressively in the fourth quarter.

Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Timberwolves have gone 1-5 against the spread since the All-Star Break, all six games coming at home. Those five ATS losses were by an average of 6.6 points compared to bookmakers’ expectations. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves.

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