Twins vs. Blue Jays SGP: Fade Correa, bet Toronto to win

For the final time this year — at least during the regular season — the Toronto Blue Jays face the Minnesota Twins.

The pregame narrative: Sunday afternoon’s matchup is a repeat of what we saw on May 26, as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman faces Minnesota’s Louie Varland. We’re looking for somewhat of a repeat performance, too, backing a teased-up under and a Blue Jays win.

MLB odds as of 9:15 a.m. on 06/11/2023.

Twins vs. Blue Jays SGP picks

Parlay: Under 10 runs + Blue Jays moneyline + Correa under 1.5 bases (+165)

Under 10 runs (-315): When Gausman and Varland battled the first time, only four total runs were scored. We’re not sure the scoring will be quite that low in the rematch, but adding two runs to the total is a good spot to land.

Gausman, who has a 1.35 ERA and .513 opponent OPS over his past six outings, has hit this under in five of his past six outings — as well as 10 of 13 overall.

Varland isn’t climbing the AL Cy Young odds leaderboard like Gausman, but he’s been solid so far this year. Five of his eight outings have been quality starts, and seven of eight have gone under (or pushed) this total.

Minnesota’s late scoring outburst on Saturday snapped a seven-game streak of hitting this under. Toronto has hit or pushed the under on this total in 11 of its past 13.

Other parlay picks

Blue Jays ML (-215): Toronto failed to pick up a win in either of the first two games of this series. But with Gausman in a groove, we’re not shying away from a bet on the home team.

The Jays are actually just 7-6 with Gausman on the mound this year, but he deserves to be painted in a better light than that.

Among his 13 starts, 10 have involved him pitching into the sixth (or later) and allowing two or fewer earned runs. That’s called putting your team in a position to win over and over again.

Also, the Twins had lost five in a row prior to this series and are just 33-32 on the year. They’ve lost to Gausman already this season, and we think it’ll happen again.

Correa under 1.5 bases (-210): Correa is merely 2-for-8 in this series against Toronto, but that includes a punishing grand slam in the eighth inning on Saturday. Still, he hasn’t been very effective with the bat lately — or all year, for that matter.

With a .212 batting average and a 92 OPS+, Correa hasn’t even kept up with league-average offensive metrics. And in his past 17 starts, he’s hit this under 12 times.

Against Gausman, Correa is 2-for-12 with four strikeouts. Don’t expect much from the shortstop in this matchup.