Twins vs. Padres Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Minnesota Twins (19-16) have dropped two games in a row as they ready to square off against the San Diego Padres (18-17), who have also dropped two straight. Tuesday’s outing at Target Field starts at 7:40 PM ET.

The Twins are projected as a close favorite (-114 on the moneyline) against the Padres (-104). The contest has an over/under of 9.5.

The betting facts in the following article reflect odds as of May 9, 2023 at 7:25 PM ET. Ready to bet?

Twins vs Padres Betting Lines

Twins Betting Insights

• The Twins have won 17, or 73.9%, of the 23 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• Minnesota has entered 22 games this season favored by -114 or more and is 16-6 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Twins, based on the moneyline, is 53.3%.
• Games involving Minnesota has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 14 of 35 chances this season.
• The Twins are 19-16-0 ATS in their 35 games with a spread this season.

Twins Last 10 Games Trend

Padres Betting Insights

• The Padres have won in six, or 50%, of the 12 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This year, San Diego has won six of 11 games when listed as at least -104 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Padres have an implied victory probability of 51% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
• San Diego’s games have gone over the total in 13 of its 35 opportunities.
• The Padres have an against the spread record of 17-18-0 in 35 games with a line this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

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Twins Probable Pitcher – Louie Varland

• Varland has a record of 1-1-0 ATS in two starts with a spread this season.
• The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he threw 4 2/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox, giving up four earned runs.
• This will be Varland’s first game as the moneyline favorite this season.
• Varland’s team is 1-1 when he starts this season.
• In the two games with a total started by Varland this season, the teams hit the over once.

Twins Relief Pitchers

Padres Probable Pitcher – Michael Wacha

• Wacha makes the start for the Padres, his seventh of the season. He is 2-1 with a 5.46 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings pitched.
• In his most recent time out on Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds, the right-hander went six scoreless innings while surrendering two hits.
• Wacha will look to go five or more innings for his third straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.2 frames per outing.
• The Padres were named the moneyline underdog for two Wacha starts this season — they won both.
• In Wacha’s six starts, his team is 4-2.
• Wacha’s starts went over the run total three times in six games with a set total this season.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Twins Hitting Trends

• The Twins have a 12-2 record this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
• Minnesota is undefeated in its five games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
• The team is 14-5 in the games this season it has strung together at least eight hits.
• Minnesota is 11-2 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
• The Twins are 5-4 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Padres Hitting Trends

• They’ve hit two or more homers in 10 games this season and are 7-3 in those matchups.
• San Diego has won six of its seven games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
• They have won 13 of the 16 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
• In 16 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 14-2.
• They have a 10-5 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Twins vs. Padres Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Twins (-114)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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