Padres vs. Tigers Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The San Diego Padres (48-51) aim to add to their three-game win streak when they take on the Detroit Tigers (44-54) on Sunday at 12:05 PM ET, at Comerica Park.

The Tigers are a heavy underdog (+187 on the moneyline to win) when they take the field at home against the Padres (-224). The contest has a set total of 8.5.

The insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of July 23, 2023 at 11:14 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Padres vs Tigers Betting Lines

Padres Betting Insights

• This season, the Padres have been favored 73 times and won 39, or 53.4%, of those games.
• San Diego has entered five games this season favored by -224 or more and is 4-1 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Padres, based on the moneyline, is 69.1%.
• San Diego’s games have gone over the total in 40 of its 99 chances.
• The Padres have an ATS record of 48-51-0 in 99 games with a spread this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Tigers Betting Insights

• The Tigers have won in 35, or 42.7%, of the 82 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, Detroit has been victorious seven times in 16 chances when named as an underdog of at least +187 or worse on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Tigers have a 34.8% chance of pulling out a win.
• Detroit and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 52 of its 99 opportunities.
• The Tigers are 53-46-0 against the spread in their 99 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Tigers Last 10 Games Trend

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Joe Musgrove

• Musgrove and his team have a record of 9-6-0 against the spread when he starts.
• The right-hander gave up one earned run and allowed five hits in six innings pitched against the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday.
• Musgrove will look to finish five or more innings for the 14th start in a row.
• He has three appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 15 chances this season.
• Musgrove’s team is 10-3 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
• Musgrove’s team has a 10-5 record in his starts this season.
• Games Musgrove has started this season hit the over six times in 15 chances.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Tigers Probable Pitcher – Alex Faedo

• Faedo (1-4 with a 6.98 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Tigers, his seventh of the season.
• In his last appearance on Friday, July 7, the right-hander tossed 3 2/3 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays, allowing seven earned runs while surrendering six hits.
• Faedo has put together three starts this year that he pitched five or more innings.
• He has not made an outing yet in 2023 that he did not surrender at least one earned run.
• The Tigers have been the moneyline underdog in six of Faedo’s starts this season, and they went 1-5 in those matchups.
• Faedo’s team has compiled a 1-5 record over his six starts.
• Faedo’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in four of six contests.

Tigers Relief Pitchers

Padres Hitting Trends

• The Padres have hit at least two home runs in 43 games this season, and are 24-19 in those contests.
• San Diego has gone 19-8 in its 27 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
• The team has collected eight or more hits in 54 games this season, and is 37-17 in those contests.
• San Diego is 40-7 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
• The Padres have drawn at least five walks in 43 games this season, and are 26-17 in those contests.

Tigers Hitting Trends

• They are 15-9 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
• In 16 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 12-4.
• In 56 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 41-15.
• Detroit has a 35-9 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
• They have a 17-9 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Padres vs. Tigers Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Padres (-224)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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