UFC 290 Odds and Prop Picks: Striking Gold with Volkanovski
UFC 290 is one of the biggest cards of the year and sportsbooks are putting out special odds that MMA bettors need to take advantage of while they last.
UFC 290 takes place this weekend, and as one of the biggest pay-per-view events of the year, books have some unique betting markets available.
FanDuel is offering a wealth of specials for the featherweight title clash between Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez while also providing unique props for the co-main event between Brandon Moreno and Alexandra Pantoja. In addition, DraftKings has an interesting market that provides a nice way of hedging your bets.
Here's a breakdown of just a few of these unique UFC betting options along with some of my favorite special prop picks for UFC 290 on Saturday, July 8.
Volkanovski vs Rodriguez odds
Best bet: Alexander Volkanovski to have 110+ significant strikes (+115 at FanDuel)
Volkanovski is an extremely accurate, high-volume striker who averages 6.35 significant strikes per minute and tends to go the distance. That gives this prop plenty of value at plus money.
The featherweight champ is coming off a fight against Islam Makhachev, where he had just 70 significant strikes. However, that was with Makhachev relying on his grappling to stifle Volkanovski's offense and a kickboxing specialist like Rodriguez will be looking to engage on the feet.
Before that fight against Makhachev, Volk had landed more than 130 significant strikes in five consecutive bouts. The last time he went below that number at featherweight was against former champ Jose Aldo in 2019, and he still had 95 significant strikes in just 15 minutes.
Rodriguez has absorbed more than 120 significant strikes twice in recent memory, against Max Holloway and the Korean Zombie, both of whom have been vastly out-struck by Volk during his title reign.
Best bet: Either fighter to win in Rounds 4 or 5 (0.5 units +470 at FanDuel)
Neither of these guys has ever been finished in their careers, but there's a reason that the fight to go the distance prop is currently a pick 'em. Both of these flyweights have incredible finishing ability for this division, with four of Moreno's last five wins coming by way of stoppage and five of Pantoja's previous six victories ending inside the distance.
There isn't much of a difference between these fighters, and there could be a bit of a feeling-out period during the first few rounds. With the durability and defensive grappling that both fighters possess, I don't expect to see either guy pick up an early finish.
However, after trading punishment for several rounds, I could definitely see a stoppage in the championship rounds, especially with the pace that these two are able to maintain. With this prop paying out at +470 there's definitely value in a little sprinkle.
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus du Plessis odds
Best bet: Moneyline Finish Only - du Plessis (+250 at DraftKings)
DraftKings is offering odds for "Finish only," "Decision Only," "Submission only," and "KO/TKO/DQ only" prop bets for several bouts. That means if the fight ends in any other way you get your money back. That gives you a nice way of hedging your bets in a matchup where you think a fighter has few paths to victory but could pull off an upset.
For example, in the main card welterweight showdown between Dricus du Plessis and Robert Whittaker, we can put our money on this +250 payout with less risk.
The 29-year-old du Plessis is a dangerous underdog with plenty of stopping power. Four of his five victories in the UFC have ended inside the distance and he has an incredible 94.7% finish rate in his MMA career. However, he has a questionable gas tank and isn't as technical as Whittaker.
Whittaker will likely lean on those advantages to break du Plessis down over 15 minutes, but he isn't invincible and has been finished three times in his career. Du Plessis is certainly capable of blitzing Whittaker early and winning by sub or knockout, and if Whittaker takes this fight by decision (as I expect he most likely will), you get your money back.
Of course, if Whittaker wins by finish himself you lose your bet but considering that he hasn't knocked out an opponent since 2017, I don't expect that to happen on Saturday.
