UFC 291: Alex Pereira vs. Jan Blachowicz odds, picks and predictions

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Alex Pereira and Jan Blachowicz meet Saturday at UFC 291 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 291: Pereira vs. Blachowicz odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the prelims are on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card is on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

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Records: Pereira (7-2-0) | Blachowicz (29-9-1)

Pereira suffered a loss in the 2nd round against Israel Adesanya in a title fight at UFC 287 last time out in April. It was his 1st setback in 5 fights at the UFC level as he gave back the strap he took from “The Last Stylebender” in November 2022. Only 1 of Pereira’s 5 fights at the UFC level has gone the distance, and 3 of his 5 fights haven’t made it out of the 2nd round.

Blachowicz was involved in a draw at UFC 282 in a title bout with Magomed Ankalaev. He’ll have to bide his time for another title shot, after losing his belt to Glover Teixeira back at UFC 267 in October 2021. Just 2 of the past 6 fights for the Polish-born fighter have gone the distance.

Pereira holds a 1-inch advantage over the 40-year-old Blachowicz and has a 5.23-to-3.41 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He lands 66.12% of those strikes, to 57.70% for Pereira.

UFC 291: Pereira vs. Blachowicz odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:32 a.m. ET.

UFC 291: Pereira vs. Blachowicz picks and predictions

PEREIRA (-110) has been dominant since joining the company, winning 4 of his 5 fights with 3 victories via KO/TKO.

Blachowicz has also been a title holder but the 40-year-old is just 1-1-1 across his last 3 fights. Since Feb. 2019, he’s had a loss via submission to Teixeira in a title fight and a KO/TKO setback to Thiago Santos.

While Pereira has had plenty of finishes, he’ll get all he can handle from Blachowicz. Do not expect a quick finish. Take OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-150), as that should be a rather safe play.

If you don’t want to declare a winner, but still want some action on the fight finish, roll with KO/TKO/DQ (-160) as the method of victory, regardless of the winner.