UFC 293: Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Justin Tafa and Austen Lane meet at UFC 293 on Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Tafa (6-3-0) | Lane (12-3-0)

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the prelims can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View

Lane and Tafa run it back after their previous meeting lasted just 29 seconds before resulting in a No Contest when the 2 fighters met at UFC Fight Night on June 24 in Jacksonville, Fla. Lane’s fingers appeared to go into both eyes of Tafa in one of the worst eye pokes you’ll ever see.

Tafa had a pair of 1st-round KO/TKO victories against Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker in his 2 fights prior to the NC. He has been rather up and down since arriving at the UFC level, going 3-3 with the No Contest. Tafa has finished inside the distance in 4 of his 6 last fights and 7 of 9 career professional bouts.

The 29-second No Contest was Lane’s debut at the UFC level. Prior to that, he knocked out Richard Jacobi in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 6, Week 9. He also has a heavyweight strap to his name after topping Juan Adams at Fury FC 54 back in Nov. 2021.

Lane holds a 6-inch reach advantage but the southpaw Tafa enters the bout with 5.02 significant strikes landed per minute and lanads 58.38% of those strikes. Neither is particularly strong on takedowns or the wrestling game, so expect this fight to be entirely upright.

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UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:35 p.m. ET.

UFC 293: Tafa vs. Lane picks and predictions

Tafa (-200) heads into this fight with a chip on his shoulder after the last meeting ended with a double-eye poke. He felt as if the right call wasn’t made in his fight against Lane, and that he deserved a win bonus and a disqualification for Lane (+165).

While Tafa comes in with a ton of energy, laying 2 times your potential return is just too risky.

PASS.

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+180) is a tremendous value. While neither of these fighters is keen to go the distance, and we likely are going to see a knockout, expect this bout to go past the middle of Round 2.

It’s worth the risk for a chance to nearly double up despite that Tafa’s past 2 finished fights have ended in Round 1.

Lane’s past 3 pro bouts (including the NC) have ended in Round 1 as well, and he hasn’t made it out of the 1st round in 7 of his past 8 professional bouts. So there are risks here, but these 2 should have quite a slugfest.