UFC Fight Night 231: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale Mayes odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Rodrigo Nascimento and Don'Tale Mayes meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 231 at Ginasio Do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's around the UFC Fight Night 231: Nascimento vs. Mayes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Records: Nascimento (11-1-0) | Mayes (10-5-0)

Nascimento has picked up a pair of split-decision victories against Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser prior to this bout. He has picked up 3 wins, a KO/TKO loss and a no contest since arriving at the UFC level in May 2020. He debuted against Mayes, posting a submission victory in Round 2 in front of no fans in Jacksonville, Fla. during COVID. If he does that again, his fellow countrymen will go absolutely wild.

Mayes, a.k.a. "Lord Kong", bounced back from this loss to Nascimento with a unanimous win over Roque Martinez. He also has dropped Josh Parisian and Andrei Arlovski via KO/TKO during the 5-fight span since his loss to Nascimento, and he'll be looking to prove to the Brazilian how much he has improved since May 2020.

Mayes holds a 1-inch reach advantage, while Nascimento has managed a 4.20-to-3.39 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The Brazilian fighter is slightly more accurate at 56.94%, to just 53.20% for Mayes. Nascimento is much better on takedowns, too, with a 1.58 takedown average and 41.67% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC Fight Night 231: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale Mayes odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:54 p.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 231:Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale Mayes picks and predictions

It's hard to forget about Nascimento's 2nd-round submission victory, but it's also hard to put a lot of stock into the result. It was during strange times, with no fans, and some fighters just reacted differently to the quiet.

However, NASCIMENTO (-200) is worth playing straight up, or as part of a multi-fighter parlay. He will be fighting in his native Brazil, and not that he needs a lot more help, but that should definitely spur him on.

The play here is taking NASCIMENTO BY POINTS (+260) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by more than 2½ times.

YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? (+122) at plus-money is a value play, especially since I like Nascimento to win by points.

Nascimento has ended up with a pair of split-decision results in his previous 2 fights, while Mayes has had 2 decisions in the past 4 with 1 no contest, too.

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