UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus odds, picks and predictions

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Khalil Rountree Jr. and Chris Daukaus meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 51 at UFX APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET and the main card is on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

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Records: Rountree Jr. (12-5-0) | Daukaus (12-6-0)

Rountree Jr. takes the walk with a 3-fight win streak in tow. He picked up a split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby last time out in late October on the heels of a pair of 2nd-round KO/TKO wins against Karl Roberson (March 2022) and Modestas Bukauskas (Sept. 2021).

The southpaw Rountree Jr. has an ever-so-slight half-inch reach advantage. That’s about the only category in his favor though, as he has just 3.67 significant strikes landed per minute to 6.41 for Daukaus and lands just 41.99% of those strikes while Daukaus connects with a 52.20% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

Daukaus enters on a 3-bout losing skid, having been knocked out in each of his bouts against Jairzinho Rozenstruik (Dec. 2022), Curtis Blaydes (March 2022) and Derrick Lewis (Dec. 2021). Win or lose, he makes it exciting. All 7 of Daukaus’ fights at the UFC level have resulted in knockouts, with 4 going in his favor — including 3 in the 1st round. He has also never been past the 1:23 mark of the 2nd round in his 7 UFC bouts.

As far as KRJ is concerned, he has gone the distance in just 3 of his past 8 bouts, with 3 KO/TKO wins and 2 KO/TKO losses. Don’t blink when this fight comes on or you might miss it.

UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.

UFC on ESPN 51: Rountree Jr. vs. Daukaus picks and predictions

Rountree Jr. (-185) enters the octagon with momentum, winning the past 3 fights, but facing DAUKAUS (+150) is a big step up in competition. Daukaus has faced down the top fighters in the division, and won’t be fazed against “The War Horse”.

Daukaus is a whirling dervish who throws all kinds of punches, and he lands his significant strikes more frequently than his counterpart. In addition, he doesn’t go long, and win or lose, this fight will end in a knockout. I like the underdog straight up, but METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY:DAUKAUS BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+250) is pretty tasty, too.

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) comes with a pretty steep price tag, but it’s worth a look. Daukaus has never been past the midway point of Round 2 in 7 career UFC bouts.

Rountree Jr. went the distance last time out, and he has ended up past the middle of the 2nd round in 3 of his past 4 outings. However, he is going to face a storm earlier than usual as Daukaus will make him eat plenty of punches early and often.