UFC 294: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov Betting Prediction

Making UFC picks on this weekend’s UFC 294 card will be no easy task with all of the great matchups and elite talent being showcased–but this bantamweight bout between Said Nurmagomedov and Miun Gafurov shows potential for a big win at the sportsbook.

Read further for a deep dive into this exciting matchup. Including the official Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov prediction ahead of making your bets this weekend.

Nurmagomedov vs. Gafurov Information

Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov

Location of the game: Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Date and Time: Saturday, October 21, 2023. 2:00 PM ET main card start.

How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV

Last Fight Record

• Nurmagomedov is looking to bounce back from a unanimous decision loss to Jonathan Martinez in March.
• Gafurov is also looking to get in the winning column after losing his UFC debut to John Castaneda in June.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov Betting Analysis

Said Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a professional MMA fighter from Dagestan with a record of 17-3 with nine finishes under his belt, including five submissions. One of those submissions was a submission of the month in January 2022 when he guillotined Cody Stamann in less than a minute and also took home a performance bonus that night.

Nurmagomedov averages an efficient 3.54 significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 2.15 as well. He has a modest 65% takedown defense that will be tested on Saturday and averages just over one takedown per 15 minutes. He’s listed at 5’8” with a 70” reach while fighting out of primarily the orthodox stance.

Muin Gafurov

Gafurov is a Tajik Sambo fighter with a professional MMA record of 18-5, winning ten fights via TKO/KO and seven submissions so far at the age of 27. He has fought in ONE Championship, UAE Warriors, and LFA before making his UFC debut earlier this summer. He’s listed at 5’7” with a 68” reach while fighting out of the southpaw stance.

Gafurov has only 30 minutes total of octagon time, including his DWCS bout. But in that short time, he averages a modest 3.07 significant strikes landed and 2.90 significant strikes absorbed per minute.

He’s a dangerous wrestler as well. Averaging 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon–meaning he has five takedowns landed.

Updates

No injuries have been reported to the UFC.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov Betting Preview

Since it’s early on in fight week, there aren’t too many betting lines to decipher to make a proper Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov prediction. This means we have to figure out who will get their hand raised by looking at analytics and simply watching the tape on both of these elite athletes.

According to the currently available odds, Nurmagomedov is coming into fight week as the -225 betting favorite over the +190 Gafurov. Some sportsbooks have the over/under as well, which is set at a 2.5-round total, with the ‘under’ being slightly favored.

After watching the tape on both guys, a few interesting points of discussion came up. Gafurov is only 27 years old. But he was getting into absolute wars in ONE Championship 7 years ago when he was only 20 years of age.

Visual Concerns

There has to be some kind of question about his durability nowadays since he is much older than 27 in fight years–he also doesn’t visually seem to be in the best shape possible. It looks like he could be a flyweight if he really wanted to cut extra fat and get into the best condition possible.

Gafurov still has strength, cardio, and a big right hand that he lands quite often. And it alters the fight when it connects. He got clipped with a left high kick and a few slick counterpunches in his UFC debut against Castaneda.

Nurmagomedov is just simply really good. He switches stances with ease, and he just seems to go with the flow in every fight. He might have a game plan going into it. But it really looks like he is prepared for anything that happens and turns it into a positive for himself.

Catching kicks, countering a takedown with one of his own, or landing super creative and well-timed spinning techniques. He also knows this next UFC fight is arguably the most important one yet in front of an Abu Dhabi crowd on this massive PPV card.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov Betting Prediction

UFC bets are always so tough to make and to be successful. On a card with a lot of unknowns and close matchups, take a pick like this very seriously.

The official Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov prediction is that Nurmagomedov will get his hand raised.

It’s going to be tough to find a prop bet that sticks out, so the -225 moneyline will have to do for now. His skill set is just too much to bet against. Even though he’s coming off a close loss to a top-10 bantamweight.

• UFC 294 Pick: Nurmagomedov -225

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