UFC 296 prop picks: Odds and more for final UFC PPV of 2023

The final UFC PPV event of 2023 has finally arrived. UFC 296 in Las Vegas will feature a massive card with some big matchups, all leading up to two title fights to end the night.

Here's a look at the main card:

• UFC welterweight championship: Leon Edwards (-170 ML) vs. Colby Covington (+138 ML)
• UFC flyweight championship: Alexandre Pantoja (-194 ML) vs. Brandon Royval (+156 ML)
• UFC welterweight fight: Shavkat Rakhmonov (-700 ML) vs. Stephen Thompson (+470)
• UFC lightweight fight: Paddy Pimblett (-310 ML) vs. Tony Ferguson (+240 ML)
• UFC featherweight fight: Josh Emmett (+176 ML) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-220 ML)

UFC 296 Edwards vs. Covington pick: Fight to go the distance (-190 or better)

This is a tough fight to pick a side for.

Colby Covington hasn't fought since March 2022, while Edwards has not only fought twice in that span, but defeated Kamaru Usman in both -- the former king of the welterweight division. Covington only has two losses in the UFC since 2015 -- both to Usman.

All four fights with Usman (not including Edwards' fight with him back in 2015) were relatively close fights except for one -- Edwards' shocking, come from behind, final minute of the fifth round, head kick KO. Usman was cruising to a unanimous decision victory before taking his eye off the ball long enough to see his title taken. 

Covington's got arguably the best cardio in the UFC. Edwards will look to keep things on the feet, while Covington will try to take it to the ground.

Neither Edwards' KO power nor Covington's submission offense are scary enough to automatically think this championship fight will end with a finish. Both of their resumes are littered with decision victories. 

Unless you'd like to lean for an Edwards KO or specifically choose one of the fighters to win by decision, I'd say just accept the juiced odds here and take the inside the distance prop as is.

UFC 296 Pantoja vs. Royval prop picks: Pantoja  via submission (+145 or better)

With such small guys -- this fight is set at 125 pounds -- I tend to lean toward the fight ending at the judge's table.

While that's extremely enticing here considering the odds are at +370, you just can't get there without also seeing that it's -700 to not go the distance -- and it makes sense given the matchup.

Both guys can do damage standing up, but their real bread and butter is down grappling on the mat.

Pantoja defeated Royval back in 2021 via submission and is looking to have a stellar performance in his first title defense. But Royval is coming in looking for some revenge.

At the end of the day, take the champ to stay the champ and win this fight via submission.

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Coby Green is a managing editor for Catena Media based out of New York. Since graduating from Rutgers University with a degree in journalism and media in 2019, he has worked as an editorial producer for SNY and an associate SEO editor for The Action Network. His go to sports for both watching and betting include the NFL, NBA, MLB and UFC.