UFC 296 Gambling Preview: Will Colby Covington pull off the upset against Leon Edwards?

UFC 296 takes place this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Headlined by a welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington and a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, UFC 296 is the final UFC event of the year, and it’s one of the best cards on paper this year.

Can Covington finally win an undisputed UFC title? Is it really the “Year of the Raw Dawg?” Is Shavkat Rakhmonov ready for a title shot? Let’s dive into all those topics and more as we discuss the best bets this weekend.

Straight Bets

Leon Edwards, -162

I like Edwards’ chances against Covington on Saturday evening for a number of reasons. For one, this is a pretty good stylistic matchup. Edwards is a very good defensive wrestler, and more than that, he’s extremely good at standing up when taken down. Covington has the same offensive success rate for takedowns that Kamaru Usman does, but he’s a much worse control grappler, and we saw how effective Edwards was at stymying Usman in their rematch. He should be able to keep this primarily on the feet, where Covington is less dangerous than Usman.

Perhaps more important though is the fact that Covington hasn’t fought in 21 months. That’s practically a lifetime in the scheme of high-level MMA. Taking that long of a layoff only to come back and fight someone like Edwards is simply too tall of a task, particularly given that Covington probably is on the downside of his career at this point.

Brandon Royval, +160

I’ve come full circle on this one. When this fight was originally announced, I thought it would be a straightforward win for Pantoja, much like in their first encounter. But as the week has dragged on, and as I’ve rewatched the first fight more and more, I’m starting to think that Pantoja winning is not themost likely outcome, but simply a reasonable one. Both Pantoja and Royval are super-dynamic chaos merchants who thrive in scrambles. Pantoja may be slightly advantaged there, but it’s still razor close. I think if you match these two guys up 10 times, they win roughly an even amount, so I like the value on Royval.

Prop Bets

Shavkat Rakhmonov To Win By Decision, +240

Rakhmonov is the biggest betting favorite on this card for a reason. He’s 17-0 in his career, 5-0 in the UFC, and famously has never gone to a decision. That ends on Saturday. Rakhmonov is the future of the welterweight division, but Stephen Thompson remains a cagey and durable veteran with a particularly puzzling style for fighters to figure out. With Rakhmonov saying he wants to strike with “Wonderboy,” it will take him some time to figure out how to do that, and Thompson has still only ever been finished once in his career. I suspect he’ll make it to the judges’ scorecards.

Paddy Pimblett To Win And Over 2.5 Rounds, +150

I’ve been trying to explain to Tony Ferguson fans all week that I’ve lived through this before. There’s this beloved lightweight who was simultaneously over and underrated during the peak of his career. But this is a rough patch that turned into an almost-historic losing streak. Every time out you, the steadfast fan, would talk yourself into believing, hoping for the good thing to happen one last time, only to then be met with the harsh realities of the world and the fight game.

There is no happy ending here. B.J. Penn didn’t get one, and neither will Tony Ferguson. He will simply have to be beaten in retirement by an increasingly less impressive collection of opposition.

All that being said, Pimblett isn’t a great finisher, and Ferguson is going to leave everything out there in pursuit of reclaiming something in himself. He probably makes it to the judges scorecards, but I’m not ruling out a late stoppage either if Ferguson goes for one final Hail Mary.

Parlay of the Week

Originally I was looking at doing a Jamaica parlay, but with Randy Brown off the card, that’s no longer an option. Instead, we cooked up an over 1.5 parlay on No Bets Barred that I’m a big fan of.

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Over 1.5 Rounds, -800

I think everyone agrees this is likely to go long. Neither Edwards nor Covington are big finishers, and neither has come in under 1.5 rounds in a fight since 2016.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson Over 1.5 Rounds, -160

Rakhmonov is obviously a tremendous finisher, but Thompson is super durable, having only been stopped once in his career. See above, but I believe this fight goes long.

Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell Over 1.5 Rounds, -370

Emmett is always a threat for an early finish, but Mitchell is insanely durable, so that seems unlikely. On the other side of things, Mitchell is a great grappler, but his fights tend to go longer, and so this should cash.

Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa Over 1.5 Rounds, -650

Rosa has hit this over in 10 straight fights. Aldana has hit it in 10 of her past 12. Both women tend to have fights go into the later rounds or to the judges.

Parlay these four bets together for +167 odds.

Long Shot of the Week

Brian Kelleher To Win By KO/TKO/DQ In Round 1, +750

In a vacuum, this should be a good fight for Garbrandt to get back on track. But here’s the thing: Garbrandt appears to be shot. Trevin Jones was a set up fight his last time out, and he really, really struggled. Future pundits will write novels about Garbrandt’s sudden fall off, but it does seem like that’s where we are. Kelleher is not the kind of fighter that should trouble Garbrandt, but at this point “No Love” doesn’t have a suspect chin – it’s convicted and serving a life sentence. If Kelleher watches any tape, he’s going to come out chucking bombs and letting the chips fall where they may. In three of Garbrandt’s past six fights, those chips have fallen on first-round knockout.

Wrap Up

The less said about last week, the better. We took some swings and didn’t even foul any off. Just a rough week. Last one of the year, let’s hope for better this time out.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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