UFC 296 Colby Covington vs. Leon Edwards best bet: Back Edwards to win at plus money in main event

The UFC closes out 2023 with a stacked card at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Leon Edwards defends his welterweight title against Colby Covington this weekend in Las Vegas. Expect Rocky to use his improved wrestling and crisp counter-striking to inch out a decision victory.

UFC oddsas of 2:53 p.m. ET on 12/13/2023.

UFC 296 Edwards vs. Covington best bet

Best BetBest Bet: Edwards to win by decision (+150)

What's shaping up to be technical warfare between striker and wrestler gives MMA fans a great main event on paper.

In reality, Edwards (21-3-0) might look to take as few risks as possible and use a point-fighting style to claim his second title defence.

UFC oddsas of 2:53 p.m. ET on 12/13/2023.

The Englishman's last two bouts were victories over the Nigerian Nightmare, Kamaru Usman. In the second of those fights, the champion stuffed 11 of 14 takedown attempts (78.6%) en route to a split-decision victory.

Although the score (48-46, 48-46, 47-47) states that the fight was close, Edwards was deducted a point for grabbing the fence in round three. He won four of five rounds on two of the judges' scorecards.

Covington (17-3-0) has only been finished by strikes once in his 20-fight MMA career against the aforementioned Usman back at UFC 268.

The nullified wrestling in that fight led to both men falling into a brawl where the challenger was put out in the fifth round.

This main event should be more of a chess match with there being an imminent clash of styles between grappler and kickboxer. That often leads to a more cautious approach from both competitors and the same is expected here.

Edwards holds a huge advantage on the feet and has improved his defensive wrestling drastically through his two fight camps preparing for Usman.

Key stat: Edwards has won five of his last six victories by decision.

Spencer Closs writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. The Star's parent company has a minority interest in NorthStar Bets.