UFC 296: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Stephen Thompson Prediction

UFC 296 is set to take place this Saturday night from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Just one of the many incredible matchups this event has in store is this welterweight bout between the upcoming superstar Shavkat Rakhmonov and the long-time veteran of the game, Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson.

Continue reading for the official Rakhmonov vs. Thompson prediction, along with tips on how to bet on the upcoming UFC fights this weekend.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Stephen Thompson Information

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Stephen Thompson

Location of the game: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date & Time: December 16, 2023. 10 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV

Last Fight Record

Rakhmonov is coming off a submission win over Geoff Neal at UFC 285 in March.

Thompson is making his return to the octagon for the first time since his TKO win over Kevin Holland over a year ago in December of 2022.

Rakhmonov vs. Thompson Betting Analysis

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a Kazakh mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 17-0 with all 17 wins coming inside the distance (8 TKO/KO and 9 submissions). Before signing with the UFC, he was the welterweight champion of M-1 Global and is currently a top 5 contender in the UFC welterweight division.

Rakhmonov is listed at 6’1” with a 77” reach while mainly fighting out of the orthodox stance. In the octagon, he averages 4.45 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing only 2.61 per minute. He also averages 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 100% takedown defense, while throwing up 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes as well.

Stephen Thompson

Thompson is an American mixed martial artist with a professional record of 17-6-1, including 8 TKO/KO wins and 1 submission at 40 years old. He comes from a background of traditional martial arts–being ranked as a 7th-degree black belt in Kempo, a black belt in American kickboxing, and a brown belt in BJJ. Also prior to the UFC, Thompson accumulated a 58-0 kickboxing record.

In the octagon, Thompson averages 4.20 significant strikes landed and 3.04 absorbed per minute while fighting in his Karate style. He’s listed at 6’0” with a 75” reach and has a 64% takedown defense that will most likely be tested heavily this weekend.

Updates

No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.

Rakhmonov vs. Thompson Betting Preview

This Rakhmonov vs. Thompson prediction is a difficult one to make because a lot of factors go into it. Bias is a real thing in sports betting and that can cause people to lose a lot of bets due to the blindness caused by their fandom of a fighter. Oddsmakers consider this matchup very one-sided, despite our love for Stephen Thompson.

According to UFC fight odds, Rakhmonov is a big -650 betting favorite in this one over the +475 Thompson. The odds also favor this fight ending inside the distance at -220. Rakhmonov is -220 to continue his 100% finish rate and finish the job before the 15-minute limit.

Watching the film on these two elite martial artists was an absolute pleasure. Rakhmonov is arguably the best all-around fighter on the planet right now and he is flying under the radar of a lot of MMA fans. He doesn’t rush anything offensively and can dominate anyone at their own game.

If you try to wrestle Rakhmonov, he will knee you to the body and submit you; if you sit back and try to counter him, he will walk you down and beat you up against the fence. He’s the true boogeyman of the welterweight division.

Thompson has arguably the most unique and best striking style in the sport of MMA still at the age of 40. He can beat anybody in the world if he can stay on his feet. The wrestling skill set of Thompson is very solid, he just hasn’t been able to compete with elite grapplers inside the top 10 of the division over the last few years.

Rakhmonov vs. Thompson Betting Prediction

The UFC fight night picks being made this weekend are so tough to make because these fights at UFC 296 are amazing. So many elite talents are set to test themselves against the other elites in the sport.

After breaking down this bout unbiasedly and understanding the process of making UFC picks, our official Rakhmonov vs. Thompson prediction is that Rakhmonov will stay undefeated and get his hand raised.

It will be hard to not cheer for Thompson to shock the world and earn his last title shot of his career, but this is a tough matchup. Plain and simple, Rakhmonov has many more ways to victory here and it wouldn’t be smart to bet against him.

He also has a 100% KO rate, but we are going with the prop bet taking this fight to go the distance and break the finish streak for Rakhmonov.

• Pick: Rakhmonov to win.

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