UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs Albazi Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

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31 May 2023

UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs Albazi Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC Vegas 74 is mere days away as some of the biggest MMA stars on the planet take over the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Unsurprisingly, a good chunk of combat sports enthusiasts are looking forward to the massive flyweight main event between former interim UFC Flyweight Championship challenger Kai Kara-France and ex-FSC Bantamweight Champion Amir Albazi.

This flyweight showdown was originally the night’s co-main event before a bout between Jack Hermansson and Brendan Allen was scrapped after the former suffered an undisclosed injury. The good news is that Kara-France and Albazi are two of the flyweight division’s top 10 fighters, meaning UFC fans can expect a thrilling headlining act.

Additionally, Kara-France vs Albazi doesn’t have any shortage of betting opportunities. Here’s a look at the latest odds for the UFC Vegas 74 main event from a handful of reputable sportsbooks, as well as a prediction and the best bet(s) for the fight.

Kara-France vs Albazi— Tale of the Tape

Kai Kara-France — Amir Albazi

Record: 24-10 (1NC) — 16-1
Height: 5’4” — 5’5”
Reach: 69” — 68”
Weight: 125lbs — 125lbs
Age: 30 — 29
Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
Knockouts: 11 — 5

UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs Albazi Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, May 31)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

FanDuel Sportsbook

Kai Kara-France -113
Amir Albazi -113

Caesars Sportsbook

Kai Kara-France -110
Amir Albazi -110

BetRivers

Kai Kara-France -114
Amir Albazi -114

BetMGM

Kai Kara-France -115
Amir Albazi -105

Kara-France vs Albazi Fighter History

Oddsmakers project this weekend’s main event to be quite the even matchup. Three of the four highlighted sportsbooks give equal odds to both sides while BetMGM is the only one to list Kara-France as the favorite. Keeping that in mind, the 30-year-old carries an average of -113 odds across the four sources — an implied win probability of 53.1%.

Kara-France has been terrific since joining the UFC’s flyweight division in December 2018. He’s gone 7-3 in 10 fights since then, solidifying himself as one of the top forces in the weight class.

The 30-year-old truly impressed fans with a three-fight run beginning at UFC 259, where he knocked out Rogerio Bontorin in the first round. He followed that up with another first-round KO victory over Cody Garbrandt nine months later before overcoming Askar Askarov by unanimous decision in March 2022.

Kara-France’s impressive rune arena him a shot at the interim flyweight championship at UFC 277, but he couldn’t get the job done, falling to Brandon Moreno by TKO.

Albazi will do everything he can to make sure that Kara-France doesn’t get back on track, though. “The Prince” has some momentum behind him ahead of this weekend’s festivities, having won each of his last five fights while only losing once in his entire MMA career.

Albazi has hardly broken a sweat against his first four UFC opponents. He’s picked up first-round submission wins over Malcolm Gordon and Francisco Figueiredo with a unanimous decision victory against Zhalgas Zhumagulov in between. His most recent outing took place in December, which saw him knockout Alessandro Costa in the middle of Round 3.

Although Kara-France is the better striker of the two combatants, Albazi has the grappling advantage. He averages 2.47 takedowns with 50% accuracy and 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes. Kara-France does have a solid 87% takedown defense rate, but it remains to be seen if he can handle Albazi’s attack for all five rounds.

UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs Albazi Betting Trends

Kara-France is 7-3 in his last 10 fights.
Albazi is 9-1 in his last 10 fights.
Seven of Kara-France’s last 10 victories have been by points.
Five of Albazi’s last nine victories have been by submission.
Kara-France averages 4.70 significant strikes per minute with 40% accuracy.
Albazi averages 3.54 significant strikes per minute with 43% accuracy.
Kara-France’s average fight time is 11:52.
Albazi’s average fight time is 9:07.

Kara-France vs Albazi UFC Vegas 74 Fight Prediction

In what should be a close-fought main event this weekend, I’m going with Albazi emerging as the victor. His grappling skills are phenomenal and should help them against Kara-France, who has been submitted three times over his career. Meanwhile, Albazi has yet to be finished and is fuelled by the goal of eventually earning his first-ever championship opportunity.

There aren’t many secondary markets open, meaning that taking Albazi on the moneyline is the best bet here. With the odds being as close as they are, you can back him on your preferred sportsbook, however, BetMGM carries the best odds for an Albazi win at -105.