UFC Vegas 77: Duraev vs Park Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

bettingnews.com

12 July 2023

UFC Vegas 77 is just three days away from taking place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This Saturday’s co-main event will be a middleweight bout between Albert Duraev and Jun Yong Park.

This matchup is huge for both fighters as both men are currently unranked in the middleweight division. Having said that, Duraev and Park have done a lot of recent winning to gain attention, leaving time to tell if a victory will lead to either side cracking the top 15 after the dust clears.

Betting News has put together a Duraev vs. Park preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC Vegas 77 co-main event.

Duraev vs Park— Tale of the Tape

Albert Duraev — Jun Yong Park

Record: 16-4 — 16-5
Height: 5’11” — 5’10”
Reach: 75” — 73”
Weight: 185lbs — 185lbs
Age: 34 — 32
Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
Knockouts: 3 — 5

UFC Vegas 77: Duraev vs Park Odds (as of Wednesday, July 12 at 8:40 a.m.)

Moneyline

Albert Duraev +130
Jun Yong Park -150

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

No +100
Yes -130

Round Total

Over 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)

Duraev vs Park Fighter History

Although both men have done well lately, BetOnline is siding with Park as the -150 moneyline favorite at UFC Vegas 77. The 32-year-old’s odds carry an implied win probability of 60%.

Park spent his early MMA career in Asia, amassing a 10-3 record before making his UFC debut in 2019. While he was submitted by Anthony Hernandez in his first fight, the Korean combatant didn’t let the loss hinder him, promptly going 6-1 in the seven subsequent matches.

Park now heads into the weekend riding a three-fight winning streak. He overcame Eryk Anders by split decision at UFC Vegas 55 before going on to tally back-to-back wins over Joseph Holmes (via submission) and Denis Tiuliulin (via technical submission).

Having said that, Duraev has also been making a name for himself. The always-tough Russian competitor has emerged victorious in 11 of his previous 12 fights, which includes a solid 3-1 UFC record thus far.

Duraev arrived on the sign during Dana White’s Contender Series 2021. He submitted Caio Bitencourt with a neck crank in Round 1, eventually earning himself a contract. Duraev followed that up with a unanimous decision victory over Roman Kopylov just over a month later, however, his momentum came to an end at UFC On ESPN 37 with a TKO loss to Joaquin Buckley.

Fortunately for him, Duraev has momentum on his side once again. He bounced back from the loss to Buckley with a split-decision win against Chidi Njokuani back in March.

Stats-wise, Park averages more significant strikes (4.92 vs. 2.94) with better accuracy (51% vs. 40%) while Duraev absorbs fewer blows (2.53 vs. 3.71) with better defense (63% vs. 53%).

When it comes to grappling, both men average just over two takedowns per 15 minutes. Nevertheless, Park has better takedown accuracy (51%) and defense (70%) than Duraev (27% and 50%, respectively).

UFC Vegas 77 Betting Trends and Markets for Duraev vs Park

For MMA fans looking to bet on more than the moneyline ahead of this weekend, BetOnline has you covered with a wide variety of Duraev vs. Park bets.

The sportsbook is expecting a longer fight by favoring it to go the distance at -130 odds. That isn’t too surprising, though. Both men rely a lot on grappling, leading to longer fights. Four of Park’s last seven bouts have gone the distance while three of Duraev’s previous five have done so.

Keeping the above in mind, Park is also favored to win this fight by points at +175 odds. He’s currently 6-2 all-time when his fights go the distance. Duraev’s top method of victory is also points, albeit at +400 odds. Interestingly enough, he’s only gone the distance four times, winning each of those bouts.

If the fight doesn’t go the distance, there’s a tie in the odds as to how the fight will end. BetOnline is listing Park to win by first-round KO/TKO and Duraev to win by first-round submission at +1000 odds apiece.

Of Park’s five career KO/TKO victories, only one occurred in Round 1. Meanwhile, five of Duraev’s nine submission wins came in the opening frame.

Duraev vs Park UFC Vegas 77 Fight Prediction

I’m taking Park to be victorious in the UFC Vegas 77 co-main event. On top of momentum being on his side, the “Iron Turtle” is the better grappler and even averages better striking numbers than Duraev. Park will be able to weather the storm for three rounds while doing what it takes to win.

Having said that, taking Park to win by points (+175) also makes the most sense. He hasn’t knocked anyone out in five years and I don’t see him submitting Duraev, either. Four of Park’s last six victories came by going the distance and with how both fighters can hold their own when it comes to grappling, I expect another lengthy battle on the way.