USWNT vs. Vietnam: Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

To open their defense of a 2019 World Cup win, the U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team begins its tournament on Friday against presumed group cellar-dwellers Vietnam.

Winners of two straight Women’s World Cups, the USWNT is once again favored to hoist this year’s trophy. As it stands, a group led by Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe and Rose Lavelle is +225 to win the tournament, which is jointly hosted by Australia and New Zealand. 

For their first tournament match against Vietnam, the USWNT is a massive favorite. At BetMGM Sportsbook, head coach Vlatko Andonovski’s side is a -50000 moneyline favorite, with Vietnam priced at +5000. 

A draw is priced at +3500. The Over/Under is 6.5 goals, which is juiced to -120 for the Over.

USWNT vs. Vietnam Prediction & Best Bet

USWNT Goal-Line (-5.75, -135 odds) – DraftKings Sportsbook

Before we dive into the handicap, let’s provide a quick explanation of Asian lines for sports betting. For those unfamiliar, this spread splits your wager between the USWNT -5.5 and -6. 

If the United States wins by seven or more goals, both halves of the bet cash. If they win by exactly six goals, you win half your wager and see half returned. But, if they win by four or fewer goals, your entire wager is lost.

With that established, there’s a case to be made that the United States is simultaneously overpriced but could still cover a lofty spread. 

According to the FIFA rankings, the USWNT is first overall, while Vietnam is ranked 32nd. Albeit in a friendly, the United States’ most recent match against Wales saw them win 2-0 against a side comparable to Vietnam in ranking (30th). 

In terms of expected goals, the United States finished off Wales 2.22 to 0.36, according to footystats.org. That’s not exactly reassuring for a team favored by this many goals, even if it came in a non-competitive match.

The counterargument to that trend is that Vietnam’s most recent match is alarming. In an Olympic qualifying match against Spain (sixth in the world rankings), Vietnam lost 9-0. Pair that with the fact the USWNT claimed their 2019 opener in a 13-0 rout of Thailand, and bettors are starting to paint the picture of how the USWNT dominates. 

Plus, there are previous instances this year of USWNT’s dominance. In two head-to-head friendlies in January, Andonovski’s side won by five and four goals in two meetings. 

Given that New Zealand is 26th in the world rankings, one could assume that a similar performance would lead to a minimum six-goal win. Across both meetings, the USWNT won on expected goals 4.28 to 0.63, per footystats.org. 

In a common fixture against New Zealand, Vietnam lost the expected goals battle 3.01 to 0.38.

Lastly, a bit of betting calculus is at play here that informs a bet on the United States. Bookmakers are telling you the likeliest outcome is the United States covering. However, it’s interesting the USWNT is, for all intents and purposes, a 5.5-goal favorite with the total juiced to over 6.5 goals.

Throw in the fact that both teams to score – “No” is priced at -550 (85% implied probability), and the assumption is that only the United States will score. 

Based on those prices, it’s the USWNT or nothing for us on Friday regarding a bet.