Women’s World Cup: England vs. Haiti: Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

In what oddsmakers expect to be one of the least competitive matches on the tournament’s first day, England battles Haiti to open their 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup campaign. 

The Lionesses enter the tournament as a prime choice to lift the trophy. At BetMGM Sportsbook, England (+450) is tied with Spain for the second-shortest odds to win the trophy behind the United States.

Haiti, meanwhile, is tied for the fourth-longest odds at 500/1, which will presumably lengthen following Saturday’s 5:30 a.m. ET match. 

Despite that ranking, England enters this match in lackluster form. Across their last five matches, manager Sarina Wiegman’s squad is 1-3-1 (W-D-L) after reeling off five straight wins. 

Yet, England is a -5000 moneyline favorite for the match, with Haiti priced at +3300 and a draw priced at +1800. The Over/Under is set at 4.5 goals, with the Under slightly favored at -120.

England vs. Haiti Women’s World Cup Preview & Best Bet

LEAN England Goal-Line (-4.25, -120) – DraftKings Sportsbook

Although the Lionesses enter this match in below-average form, the underlying metrics suggest better results are ahead.

Despite their disappointing five-match run—a sample in which they posted a +2 goal differential—misfortune has plagued England. According to footystats.org, that +2 goal differential measures up against a +6.38 expected goal differential. 

Furthermore, that misfortune was registered against sides far better than Haiti. Three straight opponents—Portugal, Australia and Norway—were 25th or better in the world rankings.

Within that sample, bettors would be wise to hone in on the match against Portugal. In that match, England drew 0-0 despite winning the expected goals battle 2.52 to 0.32, again per footystats.org.

That’s an important match to note as it’s the only common opponent these sides share over the last calendar year. 

In their match against Portugal, Haiti received a complete beatdown, losing 5-0. Now, they have to face an England team that dominated Portugal, who sits 21st in the world rankings. For reference, Haiti ranks 53rd in the FIFA rankings to begin the tournament. 

The only reason we’re qualifying this selection as a lean? Haiti has few other matches to consider when measuring them against England. 

That said, bettors can deploy some betting calculus to reach an assumed final score. 

Before we go any further, it’s important to explain this Asian spread line at DraftKings Sportsbook. This market splits your wager between England -4 goals and England -4.5 goals. 

Assuming a 1.2 unit wager, here’s how the bet plays out by result: 

• England wins by five or more goals: win 1 unit, return 1.2 unit investment
• England wins by exactly four goals: return 0.6 units, lose 0.6 units
• England wins by three or fewer goals: lose 1.2 units

The curious element here is that England—for all intents and purposes—is a four-goal favorite. The total is set at 4.5 goals, however, while both teams to score – “no” is priced at -380 (79% implied probability). 

Essentially, bettors can use those odds to assume (if the bookmakers are right) that England has a good chance to score five goals on their own. As a result, we’ll take the favorites to dominate this match and see their positive regression come to fruition.